The reasons behind a surprising collapse

Is that this surprising fall occurred in a futures market with a volume of record operation around the U $ 4,065 millionaccording to the information provided by Gustavo Quintana, of PR CHANGE OPERATORS. On Tuesday, in that square the volume was only U $ S729 millionwith what the increase this Wednesday was 458%.

“The futures melted with an unusually high volume, that is one of the reasons that lead to think that there was intervention in order to anchor expectations,” he said Andrés Reschini, of F2 Financial solutions.

“The decline of the futures was very significant and left the very cheap implicit rates, around 15% with very high volumes compared to the open interest there were. It seems to me that the future infected the officer, “said Repetto.

In that line, from Adcap They mentioned that “The opening surprised with a strong offer level that pushed the 1% fall contracts, which were intensified as the wheel progressed, registering at the end of strong casualties of between 5% and 10%“.

official dollar: three reasons that explain the decrease

To Leonardo Anzalone, of Split, There are three reasons for the abrupt fall of the currency: in principle a “rearrangement” after a seasonal rise in recent days, but also the liquidation of agriculture that could show a “carry trade” and the strong fall of future.

“Although the stock has risen, the dollar continues to reflect the structural tensions of the Argentine exchange regime“, Anzalone analyzed.

Macroeconomics also influences. The movement of US $ 12,000 million to the coffers of BCRA to cancel the INTRANSFERIBLE LETTERS who were held by the entity generated confidence and helps protect the currency, according to the economist Federico Glustein.

The organism conducted by Santiago Bausili He pushed down that movement: “These liquid resources, products of the new agreement with the International Monetary FundThey contribute to strengthening the balance of the BCRA, “said an official statement.

With this price of official exchange rate The doubt also arises from how much the agro -exporters will maintain the liquidation. In that sense, Glustein stressed that “The international price helps, but in bandwood it can be complex, especially when the withholdings return,”.

The President Javier Milei He said that at the end of June The withholdings will rise again since the temporal leave that had announced months ago. “If they have to settle, liquidate now “, summarized.

For Anzalone, although it is difficult to estimate a floor, he stressed that “it will depend on the financing needs of the agriculture and what the government does to achieve its goal of lowering inflation.” In that line, he added: “Someone is playing strong in the futures market, which can be a sign that they will not let the dollar rise. “