Chinese deceleration for the commercial war with the United States could reduce growth of the Peruvian GDP by 2025 | ECONOMY

Prior to heating the commercial dispute between the two main powers of the world, the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) raised its growth estimate of the national GDP from 3.1% to 4%.

Now, in its new multiannual macroeconomic frame (MMM), the new official figure is 3.5%, although MEF itself insists, despite the reduction, which Peru could reach 4%.

For their bad luck, consulted specialists believe that the impact of the tariffs placed by the US is irreversible. to Peru, which would push its growth down.

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There is no doubt that China is the main target of the new US commercial policy. With tariffs imposed to date at 145%, Donald Trump has said the way that the Asian nation must offer something “substantial” to get a reduction.

This situation has generated that several entities decide to cut their growth estimates for the Asian giant. One of the first was Goldman Sachsanticipate a 4%advance, a half -point reduction.

A cut of the same proportion made Citi, which now expects a growth of 4.2% for China, when it previously foresaw an advance of 4.7%.

And recently the International Monetary Fund (IMF) added. This entity said that China will also grow 4% this year, which represents a cut of 0.6 percentage points compared to its previous projection.

All, without exception, pointed out that the main reason will be the consequences of the high tariffs that the US. He has imposed the Asian country, whose government still maintains its expectation of growing 5% in 2025.

How would this possible Chinese deceleration affect the growth of the Peruvian GDP? From the Peruvian Institute of Economics (IPE) They believe it could go back to the national domestic product.

“The IMF reduced China’s prospects, but was more severe even with the US. (From 2.7% to 1.8% in 2025). They are our main commercial partners. A study of the World Bank He says that a reduction in the growth of a point between the most advanced economies reduced the prospects for Peru by 0.7 percentage points ”, Martín Valencia, head of Economic Studies of the IPE, explained, Management.

Valencia calculated that, taking into account the new estimates of the entities cited, especially the IMF, the “world” (or the most advanced economies) will grow 0.5 less. “With a simple three rule, that would mean that Peru’s growth could be reduced 0.3 or 0.4” estimated.

And there are other studies that support what is indicated by the IPE. “He Fiscal Council (CF) It indicates that 40% of the variation between the projection of the Peruvian GDP and what really grows is a product of what happens in China. The IMF, a few years ago, also estimated that for each point that China falls, Peru grows 0.4 percentage points less ”, said Franco Saito, economist of the Network of Development Studies (Networks), a Management.

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With all this estimated and calculated, Luis Miguel Castilla, former head of the MEF and executive director of Videnza InstituteHe believes that the Ministry should not remain “hopeful” in which Peru grows 4% this year.

“That improvement was before the trade war broke out. The level of instability we see now was not expected. According to MEF himself, 60% of GDP’s growth variability is attributable to external reasons. The world will not help, the internal commitment remains, but I do not think it reaches to grow 4%,” commented to Management.

As Castilla, the rest of the analysts mentioned shared this appreciation, remembering that, when minister José Salardi proposed that Peru grow at that level, already his analysis was considered “Very optimistic.”

Now that in its mmm the MEF provides for a “Conservative projection” Of 3.5% for this year, the executive director of Videnza Institute recalled that the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) expects a growth of 3.2% this year, according to its latest March inflation report.

“It was an increase of only 0.1 percentage points. I believe that the MEF should sincere its growth of growth more or less in line with what the BCRP said,” He added.

Valencia stressed that, although the minister wants to be optimistic, what is finally indicated in the MMM. “Beyond what Salardi says, this is the instrument with the official projections of the MEF,” He pointed out.

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As Castilla said, the MEF points out that 60% of the changes in the growth of Peru are due to external factors. That another 40% “internal” could avoid a fall of the national GDP?

For Saito, although measures such as those that are part of the call “Salardi deregulatory shock It was necessary, they will not have an impact this or next year.

“It is a great mattress, but there are many long -term measures, some more structural than others. Even some must go through the Congress”, He stressed.

In mid -April, Donald Trump announced the 90 -day suspension of the “reciprocal tariffs.” Which opens an advantage of opportunity for Peru to directly negotiate the elimination of its 10%rate imposed.

Prior to this, Management He was able to know that the Peruvian government had been officially informed by its American pair that there were 11 observations that “justified” that tariff percentage.

Solve that checklist It would clearly be important, he considered Castilla, but does not believe that this margin of improvement prevents tariffs already impacting the national GDP.

“We are going to live in a world where international trade will be more expensive and that, for open economies like ours, has an important weight. I do not see that, beyond tariffs, that is a transitory reality, no matter how much there is will of the government,” lament.

For Valencia, the key is that Peru does not “promise too much”, since not all those 11 observations will be easy to resolve.

“One way to negotiate is to give signs that adjustments will be made and that the concerns are taken seriously. The goal is to return to the FTA that governs us so far”, He stressed.