Isabel Díaz Ayuso can celebrate on May 2, the day of the Community of Madrid in tribute to the popular heroes who planted the French invaders in 1808, with optimistic perspectives when the Ecuador of the Autonomous Legislature is reached. According to the latest GAD3 barometer made for ABC … he PP Madrid would win again At this time the regional elections with an absolute majority, despite the movements and strategy of the parties of the left and the government of Sánchez to try to wear and tear down the regional president in the political front, but also in the staff. Meanwhile, the Madrid PSOE, with the renewed leadership and Óscar López at the controls, advances to a more Madrid that sinks and reconquest his predominant position in the opposition, at the same time as Vox, the fourth regional party with representation in the assembly, recovers something of the space lost in the last elections and breaks its downward trend.
The GAD3 barometer field work for ABC was held between April 15 and 24, with a total of 1,013 interviews in the Community of Madrid and a sample error of +-3.1 percent. In the fixed photo that reflects a PP from Madrid that maintains the same electoral force as in 2023When Ayuso achieved his first absolute majority at the polls, after previously imposing himself in the advanced elections of 2021 to the cry of “socialism or freedom.”
Electoral estimate
Community of Madrid
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Electoral Estimation Community of Madrid
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These almost two years that have elapsed since the last elections have been marked by the continuous confrontation of the regional government chaired by Ayuso and Pedro Sánchez. In view of the results of the barometer, the regional president has practically intact her strength and support among Madrid. The PP would obtain 70 deputies again in a 135 -seat regional chamber, in which the absolute majority with 68 are reached. The popular would reach the 47 percent of the votejust three tenths less than in the 2023 elections, with a leader who has played the role of political whip against Sánchez daily, within a very national speech, something always criticized by the opposition.
The left has mainly used two political weapons against Ayuso to try to destroy the regional president: the dead in the residences of the elderly during the pandemic and the fiscal situation of her boyfriend. The landing of minister Óscar López as general secretary of the PSOE of Madrid, replacing the resigned Juan Lobato, intensified the attacks of his party to the president for these two reasons. There is no plenary in the Madrid Assembly in which the socialist deputies do not use in each of their interventions the dead of the pandemic or the attic of the Ayuso boyfriend to launch it against the regional president. The result of this strategy is reflected in this barometer: it has not removed a vote to the Popular Party.
-Now, López’s PSOE has served to be the main opposition party in Madridthe position that has been occupied in most of the 30 years that it has been unable to govern in the community, given the lack of support of citizens. The Madrid socialists spent one of their usual internal crises at the end of last year, when Juan Lobato resigned. Sánchez chose López to lead the PSOE of Madrid, without primaries of any kind.
The sum of the PSOE and more Madrid loses three deputies in the Regional Assembly and 1.5 points in vote estimation
The first thing that the minister did when he was proclaimed general secretary was to harden the tone against Ayuso and tighten the political debate even more. Critics gave him six months to show visible results. What has achieved, for the moment, is to advance more Madrid and place themselves with 22.4 percent vote, 4.2 points more than in the 2023 elections. The Socialists would go from having 27 deputies to 33, less than half than the PP of Ayuso.
Oscar López’s PSOE has benefited from the prick of more Madrid, a party that has not managed to recover from the Errejón case, which has affected some of its classic flags, such as feminism. With Mónica García As a candidate, more Madrid advanced the PSOE in the regional elections of 2021 and 2023, and stood as the main opposition party. In an unusual event, the PSOE ran out of the seat of the head of opposition in the Madrid Assembly, and the deputies of more Madrid displaced the socialists to the center of the Chamber. That fact has been hurting the PSOE of Madrid for four years. But the situation could change.
According to the GAD3 barometer, more Madrid falls from 18.4 percent to 12.7 percent in voting estimation, and would stay with 18 deputies, compared to the current 27. Mónica García’s march to Sánchez’s government as Minister of Health gave way to Manuela Bergerot As a parliamentary spokesman and opposition head, but he has not managed to consolidate his political profile. Bergerot has not favored the appointment of the new PSOE spokesman in the Assembly, Mar Espinar, with a hard and direct style against Ayuso who has eclipsed to which he is still head of the opposition.
The Factor Podemos
Between the two parties of the left with parliamentary representation in Madrid, 54 deputies and 36.6 percent of the votes add up. But the barometer reflects a back of the left: it would stay at this time with 51 seats and 35.1 percent in vote estimation, a point and a half less than two years ago.
There is a third game on the left that in 2023 was left out of Madrid Parliament for a few tenths: Podemos. Two years ago he got 4.7 percent, when to enter the assembly it is necessary to reach 5 percent. Overcome that threshold, it is estimated that a game can pass from zero to seven deputieswhich would change the parliamentary map. Now, the GAD3 barometer reflects a 4.8 percent vote estimation for Pablo Iglesias’s match.
The fall of more Madrid of almost six points in vote estimation benefits the PSOE, with that rise of 4.2, and leaves Podemos with a percentage of support practically equal to that of 2023. However, there is a part of the lost vote of more Madrid that is irremediably to abstention, and that can correspond to a sector of the disenchanted left.
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Population: Residents over 18 years of age with the right to vote.
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Sample: 1,013 interviews.
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Amit: Community of Madrid.
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Sample error: +- 3,1%
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Field work dates: From April 15 to 24.
The fourth Madrid party that is in the regional Parliament is Vox. Santiago Abascal’s party is going through an irrelevance legislature in the Assembly, as its votes are not necessary to govern for the majority of the PP. It has based its strategy on a frontal opposition to Ayuso, who comes to equate with the PSOE, and a resounding policy against irregular immigration. The barometer places him with 14 deputies, compared to the 11 he has at this time, with an increase in the vote estimation of 7.3 to 9.4 percent.
