Spain will pull European growth at least until the end of the decade, according to the forecasts of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which estimates that our country moderates its GDP growth rate compared to recent years but is located at 1.6% to 2030, half a point above that the average of the Eurozone. This solid growth allows to improve forecasts on public finances, with an improvement the public debt and deficit ratio until the end of the decade.
The agency reveals in its prosecution monitor this Wednesday that the deficit of Spain will decrease up to 2% in 2030, with a rate that will fall from 3% – limit control imposed by Brussels – already this year (2.7%), according to its forecasts, in line with those of the Government. The deficit, which is the difference between the income and expenses of the state, will follow this descending path despite the fact that Spain has challenges on the table to solve and the fund urges to take measures taking advantage of the good progress of the economy. With this relatively solid economic and fiscal position, the fund considers that Spain should advance an expenses adjustment to control the still high level of public debt at a time when more resources will have to be allocated to areas such as defense, climate or population aging.
The forecasts published by the institution based in Washington are an improvement of about half a point every year in the deficit with respect to the previous forecasts. Regarding the public debt, it will fall from the 100% barrier and next year will close in 93% of GDP, a rate that did not reach from before the pandemic, when the dispensation of public money to deal with state aid made the levels shoot.
But Spain is an oasis within the critical global situation. The world fiscal landscape is very complicated, with a rising public debt by a geopolitical environment plagued by uncertainty and a high “pressure” of public spending, especially in defense. This together with weaker economic growth and a higher financial cost to pay the indebtedness of countries will cause large imbalances, according to the IMF on its fiscal monitor.
The tariffs will involve a major tax collection for public coffers, it is evident. And the US will improve its public deficit ratio thanks to it. That is the IMF forecast, which calculates in its report that the fiscal mismatch of the North American country will go from 7.3% with which it closed 2024 to 6.5% this year, although it warns of the high indebtedness of both the US and China. At the global level, the IMF estimates that the world public debt will increase almost three points in 2025, more than double than in 2024, and will approach 100% at the end of the decade.
Employment again shows its resilience and strength and marks a new record despite the Trump commercial warfare stage. Alien to this economic uncertainty, the Social Security System exceeds for the first time the barrier of 21.6 million affiliates. For two days, the last of April, this milestone has been marked, coinciding with the beginning of Holy Week.
Spain exceeds for the first time the 21.6 million members during Holy Week outside the feared economic war unleashed by Trump
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