Spaceship that did not arrive at destination 50 years ago will crash against the earth this Saturday

(CNN) — A piece of a Soviet vehicle that failed in his way to Venus More than 50 years ago it will crash against the earth this week.

It is very unknown about the space waste fragment, called Cosmos 482 (also written Kosmos 482).

Although most projections estimate that The object will re -enter the atmosphere around May 10the unknowns about their shape y exact sizeas well as the unpredictability of the space climate, they inevitable certain degree of uncertainty.

Nor is it clear what part of the vehicle will enter again, although researchers believe it is the probe, or “input capsule”, designed to survive temperatures and extreme pressures of a landing in Venuswhose atmosphere is 90 times denser than land. This means that he could survive his unexpected trip back home, which represents a small, considerable risk, for people on earth.

While space garbage and meteorites They routinely deviate towards a forced landing on Earthmost objects disintegrate when destroyed by friction and pressure when impacting the dense terrestrial atmosphere while traveling thousands of kilometers per hour.

But if the object Cosmos 482 is actually a Soviet reentry capsulewould be equipped with a substantial thermal shield, which means that “it could well survive the entrance to the earth’s atmosphere and hit the ground,” according to Dr. Jonathan McDowell, astrophysicist and astronomer of the Harvard-Smithsonian astrophysic center, who shared his predictions on Cosmos 482 on his website.

The risk of the object impacting people on land is probably minimal, and “there is no reason for great concern,” McDowell wrote, “but no one would want to hit her head.”

Competing for Venus

The Soviet Institute for Space Research, or IKI, It was formed in the mid -1960s in the middle of the space race of the twentieth centurywhich faced the Soviet Union with its main competitor in space exploration, United States.

The IKI Venera program sent a series of probes to Venus in the 1970s and 1980s, several of which survived the trip and transmitted data and images to the earth before ceasing their operations.

Two spacecraft of that program, the V-71 No. 670 and V-71 No. 671they launched in 1972according to McDowell. But only one made a successful trip to Venus: V-71 No. 670 operated for about 50 minutes on the planet’s surface.

The V-71 No. 671 did not succeed. A rocket brought the spacecraft venerates to a “parking orbit” around the earth. However, the vehicle failed to settle in a transfer trajectory to Venus, leaving it stranded closer to home, according to NASA.

As of the 1960s, The Soviet vehicles that remained in the Earth’s orbit received the name Cosmos and one numerical designation for tracking purposesaccording to NASA.

According to NASA, several fragments of debris were created from the V-71 Falla No. 671. At least two have already fallen out of orbit. But researchers believe that the one who will fall back to our planet this week is the cylindrical input capsule, or Cosmos 482, due to the behavior of the vehicle in orbit.

“It is quite dense, whatever, because it had a very low point in its orbit, but it did not disintegrate for decades,”Said Marlon Sorge, an expert in space waste from the research group financed with federal funds, The Aerospace Corporation. “So it is clearly like a bowling ball”.

And although the Venus probe was equipped with a parachute, the vehicle has been out of service in the hard space environment during the last decades. This means that it is very unlikely that a parachute unfolds at the right time or that serves to slow down the decrease in the vehicle, declared Sorge and Langbroek to CNN.

Re -entry risks

The probability that Cosmos 482 causes mortal damage is approximately 1 in 25,000according to the calculations of The Aerospace CorporationSorge said.

This is a much lower risk than that of other space waste. At least some parts of rocket out of service re -enter the earth’s atmosphere every year, Sorge said, and many lead to more catastrophe probabilities.

But if Cosmos 482 impacts the Earth, it is likely to do so between 52 degrees of northern latitude and 52 degrees southern latitudeexplained Langbroek by email.

“That area covers several continental masses and important countries: all Africa, South America, Australia, United States, Canada’s parts, parts of Europe and Asia parts,” said Langbroek.

“But since 70 % of our planet is water, it is very likely to end in some ocean”Said Langbroek by email. “Yes, there is a risk, but it is small. The risk of being achieved by lightning once in life is greater.”

Safety first

Sorge emphasized that if Cosmos 482 impacts the mainland, it is crucial that passersby do not try to touch the debris. The old spacecraft could spill hazardous fuels or represent other risks for people and the properties.

“Contact the authorities”Sorge urged. “Please do not get into her”.

Parker Wishik, spokesman for the Aerospace Corporation, added that under the 1967 outer space treaty, which remains the main document that describes international space law, Russia would maintain ownership of the surviving remains and could try to recover them after landing.

And while the global space community has taken measures in recent years to ensure that Less spacecraft make forced landings without control on Earththe Cosmos 482 vehicle highlights the importance of continuing with those efforts, Wishik added.

“What goes up, goes down”said. “We are here talking about it more than 50 years later, which demonstrates the importance of waste mitigation and making sure to maintain that dialogue (as a space community), because what is thrown into space today could affect us in the coming decades,”.