TSuspended, maintained axes? The contradictory messages from the White House have continued to follow one another since April 2, the date of the trigger by Donald Trump of an unprecedented trade war in recent history. The rough escalation initiated by the American president can only consolidate China in the idea that it must reduce its dependence in the United States as much as possible. Even if the fever one day ends up, it has created an entirely new situation, conducive to a decoupling, which has long appeared impossible, of the two largest world economies.
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Each in China, from the highest manager to the small factory boss, can only measure the risk that exposure to the American market now causes. Since the new customs duties inflicted on the Asian giant began to enter into force, Chinese exporters are all launched in a quest for new markets that could take over from American consumers.
The tour of the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia shows that Beijing seeks to strengthen its commercial links with more reliable partners. The European Union or the main emerging countries are also concerned. Brazil is in this case, which has already exceeded the United States as the first supplier of agricultural foodstuffs from China. The latter is not the only one to make this observation. The customs tax wall erected by Washington forces each targeted country to look elsewhere.
Donald Trump therefore paradoxically contributes to facilitating the advent of a world aimed at bypassing the United States. This great realignment does not only concern trade. The withdrawal of Washington from international organizations, its disdain now claimed for the international order established, for historical alliances and American commitments, such as support for Ukraine in front of Russia, are also part of this perspective.
Beijing can only be satisfied with the abandonment of the American soft power that targeted it. This is evidenced by the brutal closure of Radio Free Asia, whose role was central to inquire within the Ouïgoure community. By suggesting that they are ready to give up, by wear or weariness, to their central role for decades in world affairs, the United States creates a void in which China can have the temptation to rush.
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Since the beginning of Donald Trump’s second term, Beijing, who had not failed to denounce the blind support provided by the United States to Israel, despite the bloody destruction of Gaza, arises as a moral succession. But the new Chinese claims, if they materialize, must be considered with circumspection. Even in terms of the global crisis created by Donald Trump.
Because the Beijing trade policy, which aims to sell at all costs an overproduction that can not absorb sluggish domestic demand, continues to threaten jobs in Europe, as in many other countries. And Xi Jinping’s disastrous assessment in terms of human rights is more than ever an obstacle for many democracies, including Europeans. Compromise with Beijing will undoubtedly be necessary to contain the American disorder, but China remains very badly placed to teach the world.
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