Currently, Mexico has a dependence on colossal natural gas. 60% of the national consumption of this hydrocarbon is used to produce electricity. last year, the electricity generation using natural gas represented 58% of the total in the SEN (National Energy System), that is, “without gas there is no light.”
The risk is not only in the input, but also in the origin, since approximately 70% of the gas consumed in the country comes from the US. And with the volatility of Trumpism, the costs or the supply can be impacted from one day to another and without notice. According to data from 2023, Mexico paid to the northern neighbor the non -negligible sum of 5.6 billion dollars for the total natural gas imports, and for the first three quarters of 2024, Mexico bought 30% of all natural gas exports made by the northern neighbor. Analyzing only only the numbers would seem that we are commercial partners, but it is not true. The dependence we have is so strong that there is no margin of negotiation. If there are taxes or demands, we will have to accept without appealing; Literally system safety depends on this.
In a similar case, the European Union had a dependency to Russian gas in percentages similar to those of Mexico-EE. UU. When the war between Ukraine and Russia began, European countries were affected in a way never seen in this century. The impact was such that Germany had to announce state of emergency, with druss (electric) scheduled nationwide and suffered a huge impact on its rates; They increased their value to the cost before the Russian invasion. Currently, its gas dependence (not only Russian) is much less. After long and complicated months, they found new suppliers of which to import energy (renewable), as well as new commercial partners.
Considering this example, it is important to avoid chaos and stay alert. We need to look for more options to strengthen the country’s economic and energy independence. In the electrification plans presented by the President, there is a remarkable approach to the investment of distributions and transmission, divisions that needed to strengthen to take advantage of the productive potential of the North and West. However, with the Trump 2.0 effect, we have to consider new elements such as the dependence on natural gas.
Possibly, with more renewable energy and storage, risks can be remedied. The storage (one of the new regulated activities) has the advantage of being promoted by the government; in addition, it is not ranked at maximum accumulation, this means that both private and the government can invest, although it has the stigma of being “large”. The reality is that it is very little explored to understand it really well on a large scale. There is a great advantage in the fact of being modular, since it serves to reduce the intermission and losses of the electrical system, losses that last year cost around 30 billion pesos to the treasury, sufficient motivation to turn to see macro projects of infrastructure enhancement. The CFE can maintain control of the system, generating a minimum of 54% of the electricity of the country supported with the electric stock for maximum demand and emergency schedules. If we find a good mixture between efficient renewables, transmission and storage, there is nothing to stop national electrification or investment.
Electrification is synonymous with wealth. The main economies of the world have something in common, the consumption of electricity per capita is in relation to total GDP. Germany, France, Japan and China exceed three (or more) the per capita consumption of Mexico. At the same time, the same symmetry can be noticed between Mexican total GDP and that of these countries (with the exception of China where the proportion is much greater). The growth of these nations is not random, they are all industrial and manufacturing.
World trends mark unprecedented electrical growth, prophesying the super digital-electric, transforming the world as we know it.
Since 2020, we have witnessed technological and digital innovation at all times in our lives, something that continues incessably with the arrival of artificial intelligence, replacing essential activities, as well as modifying the behavior of everything around us. This guideline requires an increase in electrical demand greater than that of previous years. Macro investments such as that announced by the American cabinet (500 billion dollars) in artificial intelligence hubs, allows us to see the level of increase expected for the following years. The future began several years ago and whoever lagged in electrification will also remain in the economy.
For our part, just over 100 days of the new government, ambitious investment and modernization plans have been announced, including the proposal to create new industries of the new technological era, such as Mexican microprocessors. At first instance, Near-Shoring is more in -shoring. The increase in energy needs is undoubtedly a challenge. Innovation and sustainability lead to the political and financial agenda. Large investments for data storage have arrived in our country at the hands of new players. All this new industry requires a solid and self -sufficient network. We already have one of the lowest electricity rates in the world, the only thing that is needed is to enhance sovereignty.
The best investment we can do is electrification, without relying on American gas and better yet, stop depending on natural gas at all.
*The author is CEO Eon Energy.
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