The International Monetary Fund (IMF) published on Tuesday 22 its perspective report of the world economy in April, in which it cuts its global growth forecast and offers a detailed analysis of Latin America, highlighting marked differences between countries and the impact of international commercial tensions.
In the case of Venezuela, he anticipates a complex scenario for next year. According to the organism, the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) would suffer a 4 % contraction for 2025, while year -on -year inflation would reach 180 %.
The projection would keep the country in a cycle of recession and hyperinflation.
The official data show that Venezuela, with an estimated population of 26,674 million inhabitants, maintains a share of 3,722.7 million in Special Rights of Giro (DEG), of which 3,388.06 million are currently available.
The forecast contrasts with the latest report of the Institute of economic and Social Research of the Andrés Bello Catholic University (UCAB) that alerted about the possibility of a significant contraction of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) with growth rates between 1 % and 3 %.
Latin America and the Caribbean
For Latin America and the Caribbean, projected GDP growth remains at 2.5 %, although with large contrasts between countries.
Argentina leads with a growth projection of 5.5 %, after exceeding two years of recession. Reactivation is based on sectors such as trade, fishing and financial services.
Mexico, on the other hand, faces a 0.3 % contraction in 2025, reviewed from a previously estimated 1.4 % growth.
The IMF attributes the decline to the low internal dynamism and the negative effects of American tariffs. President Claudia Sheinbaum rejected the forecast and defends her “Mexico Plan”, which seeks to stimulate the economy.
Brazil will grow 2.2 %, a decrease compared to 3.7 % of 2024, amid fiscal adjustments and still restrictive monetary policy.
Other countries
Other countries show varied performances: Chile (2.5 %), Peru (3 %), Uruguay (3.2 %), Paraguay (3.8 %), Costa Rica (4 %), El Salvador (3 %), Guatemala (3.5 %), Honduras (3.6 %), Nicaragua (4 %), Panama (2.5 %) and the Dominican Republic (5.1 %).
The IMF reduced its global growth forecast by 2025 to 2.8 %, 0.5 percentage points less than in its previous estimate. The agency attributes this slowdown to escalation in the commercial war promoted by US President Donald Trump.
The International Financial Organization ensures that tariffs “suppose an important negative shock for growth. The unpredictability with which these measures have been displayed also has a negative impact on economic activity and perspectives.”
“At the same time, it hinders more than usual to raise assumptions that constitute the basis for making a set of timely projections and with internal coherence,” the organization expanded.
It also projects a slowdown in growth in emerging and developing economies, which would go from 3.7 % in 2025 to 3.9 % in 2026.
The IMF alerts about a latent risk of prolonged stagnation in the region if structural reforms are not addressed. It recommends focusing on improving productivity, strengthening institutions, and increasing labor inclusion, especially women and older people.
Source: The cooperating
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