He Retail official dollar operated on Wednesday with A $ 55, $ 1,160 dropwhile in the informal market, the Blue dollar It had a decrease with twenty pesos, at $ 1,170. As for the financial segment, the dollar counted with liquidation (CCL) registered a decrease of 3.8% and was at $ 1,165, while the MEP dollar fell 3.6%, and operated at $ 1,156.
Since the elimination of the exchange rate, the exchange rate initially showed an appreciation, but then tended to settle closer to the center of the band established by the new regime. According to the specialists of the Bróker Delphos, this evolution significantly changed the panorama for investors, especially those who bet on Carry Trade strategies. In parallel, the interest rates of instruments in pesos, such as Lecaps y Boncaps, They registered a marked compression.
Chau exchange gap between official dollar and blue
The Achique of the exchange gap and the fall of the official dollar occurs because part of the demand for dollars that previously resorted to the purchase of the Blue, now decides to go directly to the official market. They are those savers who bought small amounts, between $ 300 and the $ 500 per month, and that today have not restricted the number of US tickets they can acquire.
From the resolution signed by the Minister of Economy, the limit of US $ 200 access to the market -free market was eliminated, as well as “all access restrictions linked to government assists received during the pandemic, subsidies, public employment and others.”
In this way, and after the formalization of the end of the exchange rate, the Central bank indicated access to the market of changes without restrictions for human persons through banking entities. On the other hand, for those who want to buy dollars with cash pesos at bank branches, the limit is established at US $ 100 per month.
“The stocks for human people were completely finished. So far there was a restriction of US $ 200 plus the perception of ark, but as of Monday there is no limit to treasury, it is unlimited. The silver that is in the form of debit in the bank is unlimited,” said Federico Furiase, director of the Central Bank.
The dollar collapses: will it reach $ 1,000 as Javier Milei wants?
The dollar remains inside the established band, and is expected to continue in that range. According to Wise Capital, the bands will be extended gradually due to a monthly scheduled adjustment, which will allow greater exchange rate fluctuation. By July 2026, the lower band would reach 880 pesoswhile the superior would reach 1,625.
The drop in the dollar is due to a disappearance of demand. In this context, the operated volume is reduced and income exceeds purchase orders. In this way, the partial lifting of exchange restrictions, the official dollar and parallels began to converge.
The exchange rate is expected to remain near the center of the band, maintaining a low gap due to the reduction of restrictions and arbitration functioning as a stabilizing mechanism.
The support of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also contributes to the stability of the dollar. The agency approved a new credit line of 20,000 million dollars for Argentina, of which 12,000 million were already disbursed and destined to clean up the accounts of the Central Bank (BCRA).
In addition, exchange stability has generated an increase in Carry Trade operationswhere investors take advantage of interest rates in pesos, which reach yields of up to 37% per year, for speculative profits.
Mileil ratified that the dollar can go to $ 1,000 (lower part of the band) and that there are even arguments to be $ 900. In this regard, the 1816 consultant said that they aim to achieve that objective “Milei’s confirmation that the withholdings will rise in July, to promote the agriculture to liquidate, and the flexibility (of the headache) for offshore investments.”
Roberto GerettoHead Portfolio Manager of ADCAP Grupo Financiero, He considered that “the dollar probably approaches the lower band something more, for a series of reasons such as the thick harvest settlement, the temporary decline of retentions, regulations that are still maintained, and a new bopreal that could be estimated to estimate up to 10% of the monetary base”.
“However, it is very difficult for the lower band to remain for a long time, since it would imply a low dollar in real terms,” he argued.
The financial analyst Gustavo Ber He said that “the wholesale dollar would continue soon towards the lower band of $ 1,000 from the excess supply due to greater liquidation of the field and the continuity of bets for pesos in the current economic-financial context, not only not only from local savers but also of foreign investors.”
The consultant FMYA He agreed that “In the short term he plays in favor of the dollar approaching the lower band of the new exchange regime, the little demand (of savers and importers) andlto the highest offer (foreign harvest and investment in pesos).
In the same look, the financial analyst Franco Téaldi considered that the flexibility of the stocks for international investors “can make the dollar go to the band of the band by allowing non -resident investors to make Carry Trade what can generate an offer of dollars of very short term very high, and that pressing down the financial dollars.”
