The Government continues to make effort to slow inflation. In May, the canonical event was the fuel drop around 4.5% by YPFwhich resulted in a replica of its competitors (the values between 2% and 8% decreased). In that line, inflation of the first week of May slowed with an important food component, although food companies do not rule out applying price adjustments at the end of the month.
The weekly inflation of the Consultant Balances It was from 0,9%the youngest for a first week of the month. “Government’s efforts to lessen the transfer at post departure prices would be paying off,” they said. It is that, in April the official currency rose 9% and this progress made several price lists reach supermarkets with increases, which large chains decided not to validate.
To this data, the decline of the oil with an impact of -0.2 percentage points (PP), as well as the according to the prepaid and the postponement of energy rates increaseswhich are raised by seasonality in the cost of production, they indicated from Balancing And they highlighted that these efforts made the regulated clogs alone 0,8% In the week.
For the month of May, the consultant Ecogue projected that Price variation would be around 2.3%. Although the data is still preliminary And that’s subject to modificationsexplained that the exchange rate stabilizationbelow the center of the bands after leaving the stocks, as well as the lower impact of seasonal as fruits and vegetables, and fuel decline, They could contribute to the CPI again drilling 3%.
Food inflation in May: slowly against April
The Food inflationfor its part, it was located around 0,3%according to consultants LCG, Ecogue y Balancingin the case of a low price variation for a first week of the month.
From Ecoguewhich measures from Thursday to Wednesday, observed a rise of 0,3% In the field food and drinksa deceleration of 0.3 pp with respect to the inflation of the first week of April.
“At the start of the month, the meats recorded a rise of 0.5%, driven by the vaccine that scored an increase of 0.5%, traced by the rear cuts (0.7%) and front (0.5%). The pig was also up to rise, with an increase of 0.4%, while the chicken barely showed a variation of 0.1%. The fish on the contrary registering a 1.4%drop, “says the report of Ecogue. The negative variation of fish occurs after Holy Week – studyingly inflationary – that is a period where the faithful Catholics do not eat red meats.
Las vegetablesMeanwhile, they modeled the rise to 0,7%, while fruits They closed almost without variation. The dairy and eggsmeanwhile, they recorded a rise in 0,3%, driven by the increase in Semi -ups (1.7%) and fluid milk (1.6%)although the fall in the price of dairy yogurts and desserts (-2.7%) contributed to moderate the variation.
On average, Food prices accumulate an increase of 1.6% monthly during Mayincluding April drag (1%).
The LCG measurement He also showed that the item of food and drinks He suffered rises around 0.3% in the first week of May, although this consultant measures from Friday to Thursday. In addition, this indicator showed an increase in front of the deflation of the last week of April. In that line, they stressed that the average monthly inflation of this item in four weeks retreated 1.9%.
“The fall of 8 items failed to compensate for the sharp increase in drinks and dairy products,” they said.
From Balancing -What takes the week from Saturday to Friday- they measured a stability of the weekly price variation around 0,3%. “Even many items of goods showed relevant rises, so the rest of the IPC Core rose 1.3% weekly”they mentioned from that consultant.
According to the April REM, published on Thursday by the Central Bank, April inflation will be 3.2%, while Mayo will be below 3%(at 2.8%). INDEC will announce the consumer price index (CPI) of the fourth month of the year next Wednesday, May 14.
