The YPF oil company, which captures more than 50% of the fuel sale market, reduced 4% on average the prices of the gasoline and the diesel on May 1. This would imply a reduction in the logistics cost of companies to transport merchandise. However, the influence on the prices paid by consumers would be limited.
The company made this decision considering the fall in the international value of the Brent crude, the exchange rate, the price of biofuels and the tax burden.
About the latter it is worth mentioning that the government postponed The update provided for in Liquid Fuel taxes (ICL) and carbon dioxide (IDC) to “sustain price stability,” official sources reported.
The Minister of Economy, Luis Caputocelebrated in its X account: “In this new Argentina, prices are not inflexible down. With this reduction, the price of fuel in YPF is 9% cheaper than competition.”
The measure of the state oil company would help contain the rise in the May Consumer Price Index (CPI), compensating some increases, but would not have deflationary effects. It is important to keep in mind that fuels represent only a part of the value of transport and at the same time, the incidence of logistics in the product cost structure is limited.
The fuel item is one of the 11 that make up the transport cost index (Rivero)
Roberto RiveroExecutive Director of the Argentine Federation of Business Entities of Cargo Autotransporte (Fadeeac), said that the fuel item is one of the 11 that make up the transport cost index (ICT). “This has a relevant weighting and can produce a decrease if others do not rise, such as salaries,” he explained.
In addition, he assured that the logistics cost has a reduced weight in the prices of the final goods. “In the worst case it reaches 5%,” Rivero said.
It is worth remembering that in March moving a truck was 2% more expensive than the previous month. In the first quarter the ICT accumulated an increase of 6.3% and in the last 12 months it climbed 41.7%, after closing 2024 with an increase of almost 85% and marking a record in 2023 of 248%, the highest of the last 30 years.
Emmanuel Álvarez AgisEconomist Founding Partner of PXQ Consultant and former Deputy Minister of Economy, observed: “The 4% decrease in the price of fuels reduces the May IPC by 0.17 percentage points. This is under the assumption that the competition accompanies the measure. If only it were YPF, the effect would be 0.1 percentage points.”
The isolated effect is low and affected by all the rest of variables that move in opposite senses (Álvarez Agis)
Accessed by the possibility of a price drop in some areas, he said: “The isolated effect is low and is affected by all the rest of variables that move in opposite senses.”
For its part, Ricardo Delgadodirector of the Analytica consultancy, said: “Deflationary effects we are not going to see. Yes it seems to me an important instrument to give stability to the inflation rate. It is an element of containment in the price dynamics, rather than absolute falls. In the short term they are rigid down and this type of corrections have no impact on the CPI, beyond the incidence that the fuel item has itself.”
The economist added that in some cases the effective exchange rate improves because it reduces costs.
Orlando FerreresDirector of the Associate OJF consultant, said that the decrease compensates for the increase that public services (gas and electricity) are going to have. In the case of food, it would have some influence but distributed in two months. It would not carry a retraction since the weight of fuels in the prices of the products of the division is very low, although it has an effect on its evolution.
In March, inflation in food and drinks was one of the main drivers of the CPI, which reached 3.7%. The item advanced 5.9% due to strong increases in vegetables, tubers, legumes and meats. In April, according to C&T Economic Advisors, he presented a rise of 2.2 percent.
With regard to groups, from the Argentine Association of Automotive Transport Entrepreneurs (AAETA) they said that companies did not transfer any decrease in gasoline, which is only for retail suppliers, and therefore the ticket will increase as planned.
This month the groups from the City of Buenos Aires (CABA) and the province of Buenos Aires will amount to almost 6% in both districts, leaving the minimum rate at $ 450.63 and $ 451.01, respectively.
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