Two weeks ago, the Tampa Bay region avoided a direct hit from Hurricane Helene, but the storm surge still caused catastrophic damage, flooding homes, leaving huge mountains of debris on roadsides, and causing people to drown. who decided to stay close to the coast.
Now that Hurricane Milton, an even stronger storm, is headed directly for the same area, what can residents expect?
“It’s worse. Much worse,” said former Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Director Craig Fugate, who lives in Florida and previously led the state’s emergency management division.
Cities near the mouth of Tampa Bay experienced some of the worst storm surge in living memory during Hurricane Helene, even though the storm made landfall more than 100 miles (161 kilometers) to the north. . Now, forecasters say the low-lying region could see a storm surge of up to 5 meters (15 feet).
“This is not water that rises slowly. These are waters that move quickly with waves. “It’s like a battering ram,” Fugate said. “It’s a place you don’t want to be. This is how we lost many lives in all those areas where people did not come out (of the water). They drowned or were crushed when their houses collapsed.”
What is storm surge?
Storm surge is the level at which sea water rises above its normal level.
Just as the sustained winds of a storm do not include the possibility of even stronger gusts, storm surge does not include the height of waves above the mean water level of the surge itself.
The surge is also the level above the normal tide at that time, so a 5-meter (15-foot) surge at high tide that comes with 3-meter (10-foot) waves can easily sweep away buildings, topple bridges and crush everything in your path.
How could it affect the west coast of Florida?
The Tampa Bay region is located on the western peninsular coast of Florida, although it is not only the city of Tampa that is in danger. St. Petersburg and the densely populated barrier islands are in the Gulf of Mexico, near the mouth of the bay. And the storm surge threat extends about 150 miles (241 kilometers) north to the Big Bend region and more than 150 miles (241 kilometers) south to Naples and the Keys.
Milton will have a huge impact regardless of where it makes landfall, but the worst storm surge will occur south of the eye of the storm. If that includes Tampa Bay and the 3.3 million people who live in the region, the flooding could be catastrophic. The region has not suffered a direct impact from a Category 3 or greater hurricane in more than 100 years.
If it hits south of Tampa Bay, cities like Sarasota, Venice, Fort Myers and Naples could be devastated just two years after Hurricane Ian caused catastrophic damage, leveling homes and businesses and leaving bridges to barrier islands impassable.
What will happen to the debris that Helene left and remains on the ground?
State and local governments are working at full speed to remove tree branches, furniture, appliances and other debris left in huge piles after Helene. But they won’t be able to remove everything.
While state and local authorities fear that Milton’s wind and waves could turn debris into deadly projectiles, Fugate notes that no one will be killed if they evacuate and that property damage will be severe with or without the presence of flying and blown debris. by the waters.
“I have a feeling that everything that’s still standing is going to be rubble and you won’t be able to tell it apart,” Fugate said. “If there is enough water to move those things, it will also move houses, vehicles and other things.”
But the storm could weaken, right?
Of course, Milton could weaken from a Category 5 to a Category 3 before making landfall, but that won’t make much of a difference as far as storm surge goes.
“The wind has no memory, the storm surge does. So what a storm does a day before will have a big impact on storm surge,” Fugate explained. “Once that energy is in the water and you’re pushing it, even if you see some weakening, it doesn’t really change.”
And the area Milton is heading to has a large number of streams, canals and rivers that could cause problems beyond the immediate coast.
“With this type of storm, too many people are looking at the category and the track when really they should be listening to what the local weather services and the National Hurricane Center are saying about the impacts,” Fugate said. “Storm surge is not linked to the winds, it is related.”