The different consulting firms agree that this time there would be the lowest inflation rate of the current government, in a range that goes from 3.2% to 3.8% and it would be the first time that it will be below 4% since February 2022 and the lowest level since December 2021.
After having reached an increase of 4.2% in August, which marked a slight acceleration compared to the 4% in July, the inflation index once again showed a decrease in the pace of price increases last month. Now the barrier that had been created in that order would finally be broken.
Inflation surveys
The Market Expectations Survey (REM), prepared by the Central Bank based on private estimates, calculated that September inflation reached 3.5% and projected a price increase of 123.6% for the year, which represents an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to what was forecast last month.
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The impact of inflation is seen in the supermarket
Private measurements foresee a decrease in the price increase, which oscillates between 3.2% and 3.8%. The consulting firm Eco Go predicted that the CPI for September was 3.5%, ensuring that “After a complicated data in August, inflation returned to the downward path of recent months”.
The Equilibra report, meanwhile, also showed that the price increase in September was 3.5%. While in the case of the consulting firm Analytica, the inflation projection was a little higher, reaching 3.8% for the ninth month of the year.
The Libertad y Progreso Foundation, for its part, reported that the price variation had an increase of 3.2% in September, highlighting that “with this result, the CPI returns to its downward path, after the acceleration from 0, 2 points recorded in August.”
In this way, the entity detailed that in the first nine months of the year the CPI accumulated an increase of 101.1%, while the interannual variation reached 208.3%, “marking the fifth consecutive deceleration and “It has fallen 81.1 percentage points from the maximum of 289.4% year-on-year, recorded in April.”
The consulting firm C&T Asesores Economicos, for its part, reflected that the CPI presented a monthly increase of 3.5% monthly in Greater Buenos Aires. The analysis indicated that “This is the lowest rate since November 2021” and specified that “the twelve-month variation fell to 216%.” Meanwhile, core inflation rose to 3.8%, below the 4.3% measured by INDEC in August.
When explaining the decrease, the survey indicated that “In the second week of the month there was a significant moderation in the pace of price increases, linked especially to the goods component, which suggests a favorable impact of the reduction of the PAIS tax.”