Gas bills could arrive with increases of up to 1000% but subsidies also increased

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Although the Government has just stopped some of the gas rate increases, The tickets will begin to arrive with increases that could exceed 1000%.

In the first 5 months of the presidency of Javier Milei gas rates They will have recovered almost all the delay of the last 4 years.

This was analyzed in the latest report by the consulting firm Economy and Energy (EyE), which heads Nicols Arceo.

In comparison with other countries, Natural gas rates in Argentina are slightly lower than those found in developed producing countries such as Canada and the United States.. But they are half of those registered in other producing countries in the region, and represent only a third of the rates paid in importing countries.

Increase in subsidies

Despite the increases in gas rates in April, and electricity rates in February, in April energy subsidies were the only item that increased in real terms.

According to an analysis by the consulting firm Analytica, in April, real accrued primary spending had a monthly drop of 23.1% year-on-year. Among the accrued items with greater real adjustments compared to April 2023 are transfers to provinces (-86.1%)public works (-72.5%), and transfers to social programs (-36.1%).

The only item that had a real increase in the month was spending on economic subsidies (+17.9%)“driven by the transfers to CAMMESA (+86% real y/y)“Analytica analyzed.

The thing is that in April, the Ministry of Economy, which heads Luis Caputo, began to regularize the transfers to Cammesato lower the flow of debt with the generators, while offering a bonus to 2038 for the flow of non-payments for December and January.

Still, In the accumulated of the year, economic subsidies show falls in real terms: in the first quarter they went down 39%while the sending of funds to Cammesa decreased by 24% real in the same period.

According to Economy and Energy, in April the national State increased resource transfers to CAMMESA, reaching US$336 million, compared to the US$297 million that had been transferred during the first quarter of the year.

In any case, it clarifies: “Avoid additional delays in the payment of the transaction to CAMMESA and in the payment of the Gas.AR Plan require greater transfers of resources in the coming months.

Cheap dollar, imports and competition: the Government’s plan for the economy and wages

During the first quarter, The fall in energy subsidies explained 12% of the decrease in primary spending (most of it was retirements and then public works).

“The contraction verified in the disbursement of economic subsidies, specifically to the energy sector, can hardly stand“, they anticipate in Economy and Energy.

What happened to gas rates

For residential users, increases in final rates in the month of April will be around 343% for Level 1 users, 559% for low-income households (Tier 2) and 424% for low-income households. media (Level 3).

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Ace, The lowest-income families (the N2) will have the largest increases.

Meanwhile, among SGP 1, 2 and 3 users (commercial and industrial), the increments will climb 1140%, 799% and 318%respectively.

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Shock vs gradualism

In April 2024, rates for Level 1 (High Income) users are 17% below the average verified in 2019. With the increase in the price of natural gas starting in May, the rates for this group of homes will be 4% higher than in 2019.

However, Finally, Caputo decided not to apply the new tariff tables that Enargas had already prepared.. The information they have in the private sector is that they will apply in June. But companies doubt that will happen, at a time when a bill can triple just due to higher winter consumption.

Meanwhile, rates for low-income (Level 2) and middle-income households (Level 3) compared to the full rates in force in 2019 present a decrease of 46% and 20%, respectively.

 
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