May WASDE estimates imply average 2024/25 wheat prices

May WASDE estimates imply average 2024/25 wheat prices
May WASDE estimates imply average 2024/25 wheat prices

The May WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) are the first USDA projections for the 2024/25 wheat marketing year. One thing known with certainty about the estimates (projections) is that they are wrong. The final numbers will be different: some will be close; others will change quite a bit.

The estimates may be wrong, but they are the best numbers the wheat market has to determine the current wheat price. The market will modify the estimates daily, and these modifications will cause prices to change.

The most important estimates are production, use, stocks, and the stocks-to-use ratio.

Another important estimate for Oklahoma and Texas wheat producers is the current price and the average price.

At this writing in Pond Creek, Okla., wheat may be forward contracted for $6.25 (KEN24 – $0.40). The Perryton, Texas, price is about 15 cents lower, and the price in southwestern Oklahoma is about 25 cents lower than Pond Creek’s price. The average 2009 through 2023 Oklahoma/Texas harvest price is $5.80.

The WASDE’s 2024/25 marketing year wheat price is projected to be $6 compared to $7.10 for the 2023/24 marketing year. The 2009/10 through 2023/24 marketing year US average price is $6.

Key average prices to remember are $5.80 for Oklahoma/Texas and $6 for the US

Related:May WASDE: US cotton projections not surprising

The WASDE’s bottom line numbers (Stocks-to-Use) were positive for the world and neutral for the US The 2009 through 2023 average world wheat stocks-to-use ratio is 34%. The world’s 2024/25 wheat marketing year stocks-to-use estimate is 31.6% compared to 32.2% for 2023/24.

The US wheat average 2009 through 2023 stocks-to-use ratio is 41%. The US stocks-to-use ratio is projected to increase from 38% for 2023/24 to 40% for 2024/25.

A 2024/25 marketing year hard red winter wheat stocks-to-use ratio is not available. The USDA doesn’t release wheat use by class until the June WASDE.

World wheat production is projected to be a record 29.3 billion bushels (Bb) compared to 28.9 Bb for both 2022/23 and 2023/24. For the major exporting countries, higher production was projected in Australia (hard white), Canada (hard red spring), and the US

Russian wheat production was projected to be 3.23 Bb compared to 3.36 Bb in 2023/24. During the January/February 2024 period, some analysts were projecting Russian wheat production to be 3.4 Bb. Lower Russian wheat production expectations may be partially responsible for the recent $1 increase in 2024 harvest wheat prices.

As shown by the projected lower world wheat stocks-to-use ratio (32.2% to 31.6%), record world wheat production is offset by projected record world wheat use.

Related:Oklahoma wheat much improved in 2024

The world’s stocks-to-use ratio is projected to be 31.6% compared to an average of 34%. The US wheat stocks-to-use ratio is projected to be 40% compared to an average of 41%.

The stocks-to-use ratios imply average to slightly above average prices ($6 for the US and $5.80 for Oklahoma/Texas).

Supporting an above-average Oklahoma/Texas price is lower Russian wheat production and lower beginning stocks compared to 2022/23. Russian 2024/25 wheat exports are projected to be slightly lower than 2023/24 exports.

The USDA also released the 2024 crop production estimates. US hard red winter wheat production is projected to be 705 million bushels (Mb) compared to 601 Mb in 2023 and a 10-year average of 744 Mb.

Oklahoma wheat production is projected to be 96.2 Mb compared to 68.6 last year and a wheat tour estimate of 89.2 Mb. Oklahoma’s 10-year average production is 91.6 Mb.

Texas wheat production is projected to be 71.4 Mb compared to 77.7 Mb last year. The 10-year average production for Texas is 71 Mb.

The estimates provided in the May WASDE indicate the 2024 wheat harvest prices should be about average.

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