Polls show an advance of Donald Trump among Latino voters, who after a decade of massively supporting the Democrats now appear as a politically divided and determining electorate.
In the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, Latinos voted two to one against Trump. First to support Hillary Clinton, who won with a 38-point margin over the magnate, and then by voting for Joe Biden, who although he fell back, still won by 33 points.
But in 2024 the polls present a very different scenario: Biden’s advantage over Trump among Latinos has almost vanished. In the latest Pew Research poll, Biden leads by just eight points; and according to Siena / NYTfor just three:
Many Latinos who voted Democratic in 2020 say they will now vote for Trump. According to Pew Research, this is what up to 14% of all Latinos who voted for Biden then say; compared to just 5% of Republican voters who now say they will vote for Biden.
A key to this change appears to be the growing unpopularity of Joe Biden. The percentage of Latinos who have an unfavorable opinion of the Democrat has risen non-stop since 2021, going from 40% to 52%. Meanwhile, rejection of Trump has fallen slightly, from 60% to 58%. As the graph shows, we have changed the scenario: if four years ago Latinos rejected Trump before Biden (60% to 40%), now they reject them almost equally (56% to 52%).
The detachment seems particular against Biden, because Latinos continue to opt for “the Democratic candidate” in their district – in proportion 47% to 33% – when the polling company YouGov asks them about a congressional election that will be held today. Democrats can make two readings of that data. The pessimistic one is to assume that Biden is unpopular and his candidacy will cost them votes. The optimist is to assume that he is unpopular, but trust that many Latinos who support the party will end up voting for him.
It is very likely that Trump will improve among Latinos compared to 2020, but that still leaves us with two essential unknowns. The first is the magnitude of the change (according to forecasters from the Metaculus platform, Trump will be around 43% of the Latino vote, although he could well stay at 39% or jump to 47%). The second unknown is in which States the reversal occurs.
Latinos can choose two key territories: Arizona and Nevada
The Latino electorate has not stopped growing in recent years, multiplying its relevance. Its weight in the census has tripled since the end of the nineties, to go from 4% to 13%. For Democrats in particular, they have become essential: one in seven of their supporters is Latino.
The Latin peso is concentrated in some States, as the following map shows. They stand out above all in New Mexico, where they make up 45% of the census, although there their turn towards the Republicans is not transcendental for the election of the president, because the Democratic victory seems assured and the delegates from that territory will go to them. The same thing happens in California, where they are a third of the electorate.
Where could Latinos be decisive? The main focus is on Arizona and Nevada. These States meet two conditions: the Latino population is large—over 25%—and, furthermore, they are places where the strength of Republicans and Democrats are equal. According to Metaculus, Democrats are narrow favorites to retain Arizona and Nevada, with only a 52% and 53% probability, which actually means something else: they are key states, heads or tails between Biden and Trump.
The other hot states are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina, but in none of them are Latinos more than 6% of the population.
Lastly, it’s interesting to look at Texas. The State has been won by Republicans in every presidential election since 1980, but with an always decreasing margin. In 2000 they won by 21 points, and in 2020 by just 6 points. Latino growth has been key in this transformation, which today is a third of all voters. According to Metaculus, the Republicans will surely win again, but in a territory that used to be almost monolithic they now have a 6% chance of losing.
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