A recent survey conducted by the American Association of Retired Persons (AARP) in Arizona revealed that in that state there has been a “collapse” of support for the president, Joe Biden, among young voters and that voters over 50 They are much more motivated to participate in the upcoming elections than their younger counterparts.
Bob Ward, a Republican Party pollster, and Jeffrey Liszt, a Democratic pollster who worked for former President Bill Clinton’s campaign as well as former President Barack Obama’s, explained the results of the poll in that key state to our sister network NBC News.
Associated Press
One of the main conclusions of the survey is that for older Arizona residents, protecting the Social Security system is a highly important issue, and among those who cite that issue as one of their priorities, former president Donald Trump leads former president, Joe Biden.
“What we are seeing from 2020 until now is a absolute collapse of support for Joe Biden among younger voters”Declared Bob Ward, comparing the results of this poll with the results of the 2020 presidential election.
According to Ward, this trend is manifested in the segment of voters between 18 and 34 years old, but it is also expressed in the group of voters under 50 years old, in general. It’s “what’s happening in the electorate, not just in Arizona, but in many other of these key states. What’s wrong with these voters? Will they come home?” [apoyar a Biden]? Won’t they vote? Will you vote for RFK [Robert F. Kennedy Jr.]? There is a big difference between 2020 and now,” she stressed.
The AARP survey also found that about 15% of respondents are known as double haters, or people who have an unfavorable opinion of Biden and Trump. In that case, the poll revealed, Kennedy Jr. wins 52% of his support.
Voters over 50 are more motivated
“Voters over 50 tell us that they are much more motivated to go to the polls than those under 50. We ask them on a scale of 0 to 10, where people can tell us that they choose zero, [es decir]who is not motivated, or who is very motivated to vote [10]or anywhere in between,” explained Jeff Liszt.
In this case, he added, of the people who said they chose 10, that is, they are extremely motivated to vote, 86% of them were over 50 years old.
That result, he stressed, is higher than the 66% of voters under 50 who said be very eager to go to the polls.
[Biden se aferra a los votantes más ancianos a falta de apoyo entre los jóvenes y los latinos]
“It’s a huge gap. I think the question remains whether younger voters will turn out or not.” [a las urnas]but we know that older voters will do it because they have done it in the past and they assure us they will do it again,” Liszt said.
Ward explained that what is happening is a conjunction between the position of voters under 50 and the greater support that Kennedy Jr. is receiving.
“This election there’s a big question mark, as to who’s going to turn out to vote in November. All the data we’re seeing here is putting a big question mark on whether voters under 50 are going to show up. Are they going to turn out? vote for a third party? Will they support the Democrats again? Will they stay home? I think the most important thing is that voters over 50 go to the polls. And that’s where the campaigns should focus. Yes, there is a lot of work to do in the segment of voters under 50 years of age,” he stressed.
Trump leads Biden by 45 to 37 points
The poll also found that former President Trump leads Biden by a margin of 45 to 37 by eight points in the state, with Kennedy Jr. receiving 11% of the vote.
Although the former president surpasses the current president among 50-year-old voters, both are tied when support is broken down between men and women.
[Trump se concentra en su venganza tras su histórico veredicto de culpabilidad]
“Voters over 50 years old They lean more Republican. The advantage that Trump [en Arizona] among those voters it is a margin of 10 points and he leads Biden 49 to 39,” Ward said.
However, the pollster indicated, there is what he considered “a gender gap.”
“If we look at women over 50, there is a tie [en ese segmento] in the presidential race. Both Trump and Biden achieve 42% [de apoyo] among women over 50 years of age. And Trump has more than 22 points ahead [sobre Biden] among men aged 50 and older.
The survey revealed that Biden’s performance as president is rejected by 62% and, retroactively, a small majority – 53% – supports the work that Trump did while he occupied the Oval Office.
This negative opinion about Biden’s work is weighing heavily on the survey results, Ward stressed.
Immigration: a critical point
Immigration is, without a doubt, the most important issue for Arizona residents. The survey revealed that it is what defines this electoral campaign.
41% of voters age 50 and older in the state cited immigration and border security as their priority.
That figure – Ward explained – rises to 70% among Republican Party voters aged 50 and over, and reaches 33% among independents of the same age. However, it only worries 7% of Democrats in the same group.
However, “it is [también] the main issue among Latino voters ages 50 and older, so 34% of them indicated it as their priority“said Ward.
The economy: a great priority
The survey also found that inflation, rising prices, the general economy, employment and social security are among the concerns of 54% of voters in the state.
To the question of how worried are you about your personal financial situation? A large majority of Arizona voters, 61%, revealed they were personally concerned.
[Los demócratas planean nominar a Biden mediante pase de lista virtual para cumplir con el plazo de votación de Ohio]
Another issue that worries state voters is Social Security.
Ward said the survey included a question for voters age 50 and older about whether Social Security is already, or would likely be, a major or minor source of their future income.
“78% of Arizona voters age 50 and older said Social Security will be a very or extremely important issue. [en las elecciones] 47% stated that it is an extremely important issue,” he explained.
On this topic, the former president Trump leads Joe Biden by nine points.
“That,” he commented, “is a surprising finding and is something that I think is a wake-up call for the Biden campaign,” he said.
The Biden campaign indicated last March that it was going to begin a series of attacks against Trump in the key states of Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which is why it considered the former president’s threats to cut Social Security and the Medicare.
The battle in Arizona for a Senate seat
The AARP survey also confirmed what other polls have revealed in recent months: Many Arizona residents are more familiar with Republican Senate hopeful Kari Lake than with her Democratic challenger Ruben Gallego. Although – the poll highlighted – the image and reputation of Lake, who has been a fervent defender of former President Trump and the claim that there were irregularities in the 2020 elections, may be harming her in the battle to occupy a seat in the Upper House .
Arizona voters overall favor the Democrat over the Republican 48% to 45% in the battle for the Senate.
“There are 22% who still do not know who Rubén Gallego is, and 19% who have heard about him, but do not have an opinion about it. So it is up to the Lake campaign and the Gallego campaign to define who Ruben Gallego is,” explained Bob Ward.
In this contest, there is also a gender gap.
The survey found that Gallego is much stronger among women 50 and older – he has a 12-point lead over Kari Lake – but Lake leads him by 15 points among men in the same age group.
“In the Senate race, Gallego has a much larger lead among Hispanic Latino voters over 50 and leads [a Lake] by 26 points: 62 to 36,” Ward said.
With information from NBC News
