Analysts ‘bet’ on this, according to Citibanamex Survey – El Financiero

Analysts ‘bet’ on this, according to Citibanamex Survey – El Financiero
Analysts ‘bet’ on this, according to Citibanamex Survey – El Financiero

The next cut by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to the interest rate You will have to wait and it will not be next week, but until the meeting scheduled for the beginning of August, according to the Citibanamex Survey.

A couple of weeks ago, The market consensus expected a cut of 25 basis points on June 27, but now they estimate that the August 8.

“Of the participants who answered this question, 9 continue to see this movement for June (26 in the previous survey), while now 22 participants see the cut until 3Q24 (11 fifteen days ago) and 3 project it between 4Q24 and the 1Q25″, indicated Citibanamex.

The expectations of keeping the level of the interest rate unchanged They emerged after the volatility in the markets after the elections on June 2, in which the exchange rate has shown a notable depreciation against the dollar.

With the postponement of the cut, at the end of the year the reference rate would be 10.25 percent and not 10.00 percent as expected. Currently the rate is located at 11.00 percent.

In 2025, Banxico’s interest rate would be 8.25 percent, above the 8.00 percent estimated in the survey two weeks ago.

In a separate report, JPMorgan also estimated that Banxico will keep the rate unchanged next week and represents a ‘head scratch’ for the Governing Board “considering the incoming political and institutional challenges, on the one hand, and the continued progress of the disinflation, on the other.”

JPMorgan It differs from the market consensus, since the financial institution estimates that the next cut will be until September and another in December, which would end the year at 10.50 percent.

About the general inflation expectationsthe analysts consulted by Citibanamex expect it to close this year at 4.27 percent annually, from 4.30 percent, and the underlying was adjusted to 4.02 percent, from 4.08 percent.

“For the end of 2025, general inflation expectations increased to 3.80% from 3.71% fifteen days ago, while core inflation estimates increased to 3.75% from 3.70%,” Citibanamex added.

They adjust expectations for the ‘superweight’ and GDP at the end of 2024

The exchange rate is expected to end the year in 18.70 pesosthe highest estimate in the last nine fortnights and well above the 18.00 pesos of the previous year.

While, by 2025 the depreciation will persist and would reach 19.30 units per dollar, from 18.87 units in the previous survey.

Furthermore, the GDP forecast for this year had a cut and the economy is expected to grow 2.1 percent, from 2.2 percent and in 2025 it would slow to 1.7 percent, below the previous 1.80 percent.

With the most optimistic estimate on the GDP for this year is Masari Casa de Bolsa, with 2.7 percent and the lowest is from XP Investments, with 1.4 percent.

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