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WARSAW.- For millions of Ukrainians, a crucial stage of the war began: starting this Saturday, It is mandatory to make yourself available to the Army to a potential recruitment, and if they don’t, they can face serious consequences. “I completed the registration, which was a cumbersome process. But I will do everything in my power to prevent them from joining the infantry. I would do whatever it took“, he tells THE NATION Eugene, 37, who lives in kyiv with his wife and one-and-a-half-year-old son, and prefers to keep his last name confidential. “Fear is a bad friend in this military mobilization megaprocess“, Add.
More than two years after the Russian invasion, The Armed Forces of Ukraine are short of soldiers, entrenched and outgunned, and the government of Volodymyr Zelensky faces a challenge as gigantic as it is urgent. The entry into force this Saturday of a controversial law that seeks to add up to 500,000 men to the Army and reinforces sanctions for those who do not comply with the rule generates anxiety in a large part of the population, at a time when the West fears that the renewed Russian war effort in Kharkov -the second largest city in the country, in the northeast- can twist the course of a war with no end in sight.
The mobilization law – which was softened with respect to its original project – will facilitate the identification of all men who meet the requirements for mandatory military service in the country, where many evaded conscription by avoiding contact with authorities. Legislators delayed approval of the text for months, until April, a week after reducing the recruitment age from 27 to 25 years.
According to the rule, eligible men up to 60 years old They must carry documents showing that they have registered in the Army –in regional offices or through an app- and present them when requested. In addition, anyone who requests state service at a consulate abroad will be enrolled in military service. The law also offers incentives to soldiers, like money bonuses to buy a house or a car.
Zelensky signed two other laws to allow inmates to join the Army and increase sanctions and fines for those who evade mandatory military service: They can lose their driving license and even have their bank accounts frozen and their assets seized. The turnstile will also be tightened at the borders for men who, due to some exception, are allowed to leave the country. In total, about a million Ukrainians are in the various forces, of which Some 300,000 are serving on the front, in many cases exhausted after more than two years of fighting.
“Mobilization is a huge challenge for the government. Somehow it will be done, but it is difficult to know what the final result will be. People must first be mobilized, then trained and armed before deploying them to the front. You also have to pay them. This is a monumental multiple challenge“, points to THE NATION Volodimir Dubovyk, Ukrainian political scientist and director of the Center for International Studies at Odessa National University.
Before the large-scale invasion ordered by the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, as of February 24, 2022, there were 8.7 million men of draft age in Ukraine; Two years later, that figure fell to about 5 million. The Army needs up to half a million more soldiers to fight the Russians, that have a mobilization capacity at least four times greater given the difference in the size of the population, military experts point out.
“This population disparity between Russia and Ukraine was always destined to be a problem over time. That’s why Putin is now betting on a longer war, apparently, as it expects Ukraine’s human resources to be depleted. Considering that the sanctions are not working as expected, and that Russia has the money and means it needs to produce more weapons, the situation is becoming difficult,” says Dubovyk. “But with the right strategy, tactics, weapons and financing, Ukraine could still resist,” he adds.
Is it a realistic plan for the Ukrainian Army to add that many soldiers with this new law in a short time? “No, it is not. It is not just recruitment, since it is now an eligibility registration that lasts 60 days, but then people have to be properly trained. One of the fears of potential volunteers is that military training may be insufficient before being deployed. That can take a long time,” warns Frank Ledwidge, a military analyst at the University of Portsmouth, England. “Half a million new troops is an objective that I believe the Army cannot meet, it is a problem in its message,” he adds.
Eugene, who still maintains his work in special effects for commercials and films, maintains that the reason many Ukrainians refuse to enlist and try to avoid recruiting patrols is the “very low quality of military training” that they would receive before going to fight. “In infantry it is basic, very weak, friends told me. And we must keep in mind that the war that took place at the beginning, in 2022, is different from last year, and from what happens in 2024. Now it is more deadly, because there are a lot of artillery, drones, guided bombs, all very dangerous for the infantry members”, he explains, and lists cases of civilian friends who died or were injured on the battlefront.
Ukrainian commanders acknowledge that Moscow has more troops, but say another decisive factor is its superior artillery, as well as warplanes, used to bomb defenses. That is why they seek to accelerate sending aid from the West.
“Many think that it is others who should fight for them. All responsibility for repelling the Russians had been placed on the Army. Now everyone must do their duty: everyone wants rights, but not responsibilities“, points to THE NATION a volunteer who joined the Army in 2022, retired from the front line after losing a leg in combat in the Donetsk region.
In kyiv, stories of men avoiding places where recruitment patrols are usually deployed are common, and there are several Telegram channels that give real-time notice of their deployment in different parts of the capital. There are also lawyers who receive daily messages from people seeking legal ways to avoid potential enlistment in the Army, according to local media.
“If I have to go to the front I will do it. But look at the problems with registration: I’m trying to do it and it’s complex. If there is no order in this, imagine what it will be like in the Army” explains Vitalii, 34, from a recruitment center on the outskirts of kyiv. Like many men in his situation, he prefers to keep his last name private.
According to a study by the Ukrainian company InfoSapiens, among the main fears Dissuading men from enlisting include shortages of material and equipment (66%), lack of adequate training (64%), risk of death or injury (64%), and uncertainty about the conditions of demobilization (64%). %).
“Another impact of the mobilization law is social: people are tired after more than two years of war, There is a feeling that the burden is unequally distributed and that the government is not doing its best. I do not believe that the law will cause open fractures in society now, but in the long term can become a serious political problem“, warns THE NATION Eugene Finkel, political scientist and Ukrainian historian at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore.
“The president’s situation is not simple: His popularity is going down, which is understandable, everyone is exhausted and there are no successes on the battlefield. At the same time, Ukrainians are not fighting for Zelensky, they are fighting for Ukraine, and because they believe that the alternative is worse,” adds the expert, whose latest book is Intent to destroy: Russia’s 200-year quest to dominate Ukraine.
To sow optimism and put pressure on the West again to send military aid, the head of the Ukrainian presidential office and Zelensky’s right-hand man, Andriy Yermak, promised that the Army will not have a shortage of troops on the front if it receives the weapons it needs. to resist the Russian offensive. “If we have enough weapons we will have enough people,” he said at the Democracy Summit in Copenhagen this week.
