The economic and humanitarian crisis in Venezuela is one of the most severe in recent history, a result of the populist model and the corruption entrenched at all levels of the Chavista government for 25 years.
He economic failure of the socialists has been evident with a oil production that fails to recover from its historic low levels, a private industry that has resisted all types of attacks, lack of food and basic supplies and minimum wage below the 10 dollars.
Despite the current uninspiring outlook, there are those who for years have dedicated themselves to studying local needs to offer real alternativesproposals that are gaining more and more strength given the proximity of the presidential election of the next 28 of July.
In dialogue with Infobae, Henkel Garciamember of the opposition leader’s team of advisors Maria Corina Machadooutlined a series of urgent needs and strategies aimed at Venezuelan recovery.
“The humanitarian emergency requires immediate attention in critical areas such as health and education,” emphasized the financial analyst, director and founder of Albusdata.
To address the most pressing needs, García highlights the importance of improving health and education systems. The recovery in these sectors will also include a significant increase in salaries of teachers and doctors.
“The first thing is to address the humanitarian emergency in the area of health and education, which in turn also involves a set of recovery of infrastructure works,” said García. Added to this is the need to reinforce social security, implementing direct unconditional transfers for pensioners and other vulnerable groups.
Macroeconomic stabilization and legal reform are essential in this process. For the financial analyst, it is essential to reduce the fiscal gap and promote respect for private property, which has been so attacked with tax reforms, expropriations and criticism by the regime. “You have to go through a period of stabilization, of finishing stabilizing the economy to reduce the fiscal gap,” he explained.
The massive attraction of investments, particularly in the oil sectoris proposed as a key pillar to trigger economic reactivation and improve public services.
For Garcia, “The role of the private sector is leading, that is why I mentioned actions such as the defense of private property, having a legal framework that is complied with”. In an environment where contracts and legal regulations are respected, the private sector can play a decisive role in the development of the country.
The transition to a more stable economy will not be without challenges. García warns of the instability inherent in any transition, especially in a political context where key institutions are under government control. chavismo. “A transition is by definition unstable. And in the Venezuelan case we have to be very careful,” indicated the expert.
During this process of economic adjustment, in a country that, according to figures from the National Survey of Living Conditions (ENCOVI) had more than 50% of its population in poverty in 2023, Protecting the most vulnerable sectors will be essential.
The forecast is that the economic transformation represents a significant positive change for Venezuelans. Although the initial adjustments will be harsh, the goal is to gradually improve the quality of life in the country.
“The transition could represent a turning point where from there what the citizen will experience are improvements,” says García, advocating for improvements in family income and the quality of public services.
To this end, the member of the opposition advisory team stressed the need for international aid and credits from multilateral organizations.
“Today we don’t have the resources. For this reason, resources would momentarily be sought abroad and Venezuela, as the years go by, will increase its payment capacity,” said the expert, highlighting the urgency of obtaining external support to start a virtuous cycle of growth and improve quality. of life of citizens.
To combat the corruption and the bad management economic, which have been distinctive during the management of the chavismo, García insisted on an “institutional rebirth.” To achieve this, he believes it is important to have functional institutions that work for the benefit of citizens and not power groups. This process includes the implementation of clear standards and rules, and respect for contracts at all levels.
This fight against corruption and mismanagement entails guaranteeing a fair economic transition, for which a robust institutional framework is essential. According to García, a functional institutional system prevents the most powerful groups from obtaining unfair advantages.
“In the institutional framework, in the end, it is clear rules and regulations and respect for contracts at all levels,” he noted, adding that this is crucial to avoid the perpetuation of privileges and guarantee an equitable transition.
The large number of factors that converge in the Unitary Platform make it difficult to propose a single alternative for an economic recovery model in Venezuelabut the policies implemented during the four centuries that Chavismo has dominated have marked the path to achieving “an implicit consensus on economic rationality, where the country has to go.”
“I believe that there yes there is a minimum of land in common about the different people, the different economists and people involved. So, I don’t think that part is so conflictive and that precisely, from what one can see of the dynamics from afar is that it is pointing there: to have a set of measures that are not going to please everyone, obviously. “But we do have a minimum in common that lays the foundations for an economy in transition that is of greatest benefit to the citizen,” García explained.
Another element that experts take into account to address possible scenarios for the future of Venezuela are the success stories around the world of changes in the implementation of economic models.
Among the transition models to consider, García mentioned the Germany of the postwar period, with “a very striking because the Germans practically had to be reborn after a country destroyed by the entire Second World War”
Another reference case is that of Peru of the 90s: “I think it is an important guide. A country that was experiencing hyperinflation. A country where there was no trust in the institutions. A country in which there was also the coexistence of two currencies with a very clear dominance of the dollar with respect to the local currency.”
Overcome the calamities you are going through Venezuela It will not only be a matter for all Venezuelans. García believes that the titanic task of lifting the country also requires the support of an international community that facilitates the reactivation of the economy, especially the nations allied to the new government.
“The role of countries in the short term, especially to provide aid and in the form of credit, bridge or any type of aid that they can give in the very short term, is going to be fundamental,” he concluded. This support will be crucial to begin the recovery process and improve the humanitarian situation in Venezuela.
Subsequently, multilateral organizations will also play a fundamental role in the negotiation processes that take time, “but in the very short term, direct help from close friendly countries will be key.”
