establishment of the El Niño phenomenon increases during winter

viviana urbina 05/11/2023 19:55 5 min
Then we will go from a neutral phase of the equatorial waters of the Pacific, towards the condition of El Niño. Source: OSPC/NOAA.

This Thursday, May 11, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecast conducted by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and Columbia University’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI).

Extreme weather could be increased with the arrival of El Niño in the coming months

Extreme weather could be increased with the arrival of El Niño in the coming months

The CPC warns about the transition from the current ENSO neutral phase to an El Niño condition within the next few monthswith a probability bordering on the 90%Therefore, the ENSO alert system remains in the El Niño surveillance phase.

The analysis of various statistical and dynamic models carried out by the IRI indicates that El Niño should form during the quarter May-June-Julyand that this phenomenon would spread until next summer (2023-2024)with high probability.

A moderate El Niño episode

The analysis presented by these large climate centers on the intensity that should reach The boy in the coming months places the phenomenon within the moderate range, with 80% probabilityduring the quarter November-December-January.

probability of El Niño occurrence
The NOAA CPC forecast shows a probability greater than 90% for the arrival of the El Niño phenomenon in the coming months.

At the moment, the probability that this phenomenon reaches a strong intensity (sea surface temperature anomaly greater than 1.5 ºC), is of the order of 50% in the October-November-December quarter, according to the latest prediction issued by the CPC.

What is the Sea Surface Temperature anomaly?

The sea surface temperature anomaly (TSM) corresponds to the difference between the observed value and the average climatic value of the ocean surface water temperature.


And the probability that a The weak child (sea surface temperature anomaly greater than 0.5ºC) rises to 94% as of the September-October-November quarter.

In summary, during the winter months a weak El Niño would establishalthough with high probability for it to evolve into a moderate intensity phenomenon during the months of spring 2023.

What is expected for Chile with the arrival of El Niño?

In average terms, the presence of El Niño leaves favorable conditions for increased rainfall during the months of June to September (winter and spring). However, this is not an absolute guarantee that the country will receive much higher values ​​of rainfall.

However, we already see some signs that the increase in temperatures of the equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean may bring precipitation events more favorable to Chilecompared to what it has experienced so far this fall in 2023.

What he ECMWF climate model indicates, with respect to the rains of the coming months, it is auspicious for a good part of the country that suffers with the drought and water scarcity. Part of winter could be rainiest in a good portion of the central zone of chile. And besides, this hot streak could extend into early spring.

Anyway, we must be attentive to the responses that the atmosphere may have with the greater warming of the equatorial waters of the Pacificand also, monitor the other factors that affect the climate of our country, and regulate the amount of rain and the advance of the frontal systems that could affect during the rainiest period in central and southern Chile.



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