Models show the imminent arrival of the El Niño phenomenon in Chile in the middle of winter


Yesterday, Thursday, May 11, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecast made by the Climate Prediction Center was released (CPC) from NOAA and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) from Columbia University.

The cpc warns about the transition from the current ENSO neutral phase to a condition of The boy within the next few months, with a probability of around 90%, which is why the ENSO alert system remains in the El Niño Surveillance phase.

The analysis of various statistical and dynamic models carried out by the IRI indicates that El Niño should form during the quarter may June Julyand that this phenomenon would extend until next summer (2023-2024).

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  • What is expected for Chile with the arrival of El Niño?

In average terms, the presence of El Niño leaves favorable conditions for rainfall to increase during the months of June to September (winter and spring), as detailed Meteored.

In this context, the aforementioned medium sees signs that the increase in temperatures of the equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean could bring more favorable precipitation events to Chile, compared to those it has experienced so far this autumn in 2023.

What the ECMWF climate model indicates, regarding the rains in the coming months, is auspicious for a good part of the country that suffers from drought and water scarcity. Part of the winter could be more rainy in a good part of the central zone of Chile. And besides, this good streak could extend into early spring.



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