Tomorrow a new rate decision from the Board of Directors of the Bank of the Republic will be announced, the third of the year and in which a new rate cut is expected. The financial market projects, almost unanimously, that the reduction will be 50 basis points, which would leave rates at 11.75%.
Only two financial entities, the Bank of the West and Fiduoccidentethey foresee a more aggressive rate cutwith a bet of 75 basis points at a rate of 11.5%, as revealed by Citibank’s expectations survey of 26 market entities.
None of the respondents project a reduction in rates of 100 points, as the Minister of Finance, Ricardo Bonilla, has been insistingwho also holds a seat on the Issuer’s Board of Directors.
“The Bank of the Republic can accelerate the decline, It is no longer useful for us to drop 25 or 50 points. We need it to go down more,” said Bonilla after knowing the inflation data for March, when it completed a full year of deceleration at a rate of 7.36%.
The Citi expectations survey agrees with the survey carried out by Fedesarrollo. For April and July the analysts consulted The study center expects the intervention rate to be between 11.75% and 10.50%., respectively. They also anticipate that the intervention rate will be at 8.25% in December 2024increasing compared to the 8.00% expected the previous month.
The same Banco de la República also carried out an expectations survey among market analysts which had the same result, a projection of 11.75% in the intervention rate after tomorrow’s meeting. The only caveat is that only one analyst predicted that the Bank will keep rates at 12.25%.
Another think tank, Anif, conducted its own survey of 17 analysts, but went a little further. The survey He asked how the votes will be divided among the members of the Issuer’s Board of Directors. The market anticipates there will be a greater consensus compared to the March decision.
Almost all respondents (94%) said that There will be two co-directors who do not agree with the final decision, while 6% of analysts predict that there will be three members in dissent.
Among the members of the Issuer’s Board who would vote for a more aggressive rate adjustment, the Minister of Finance, Ricardo Bonilla, is the main option, according to the Anif survey. But they also talked about the co-directors Olga Lucía Acosta, Roberto Steiner and Mauricio Villamizar.
