The actions of S&P Merval of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange so far in 2024, they have maintained a very good performance, because although few increases managed to overcome inflation – like bank securities -, they did achieve gains measured in dollars, given the passivity of the exchange rate.
This Monday, the leading panel of the Buenos Aires market repeats its recent highs of 1,200 points in dollars – according to the “cash with liquid” price – and exceeds 1,300,000 points, once again in the area of nominal maximums already registered in the first week of February. In dollars, the Merval rises 26% so far this yearwhile the increase in pesos reaches 41 percent.
In this sense, progress in the treatment of Base Law It may be contemplated in the current prices of Argentine equities. Therefore, it could mean excess optimism to expect significant increases in domestic stocks in the short term.
Some Cedears with firm fundamentals maintain peso declines close to 50% in 2024, which makes the entry point attractive
That’s why he Investor focus returns to Cedearthat is, the Argentine Certificates of Deposit, which are instruments issued in Argentina that represent foreign assets not listed in the country. Cedears can be purchased on the domestic stock market with pesos and in their evolution they replicate both increases and decreases in dollars of such companies that are traded on Wall Street, such as eventual rise of the dollar “counted with liquidation” in Argentina.
Among the numerous Cedears that are traded in Buenos Aires are the main listed companies in the world such as large Argentine companies that are not listed on Merval, but are listed on Wall Street.
In this sense, the presentation of recent quarterly balances opens the doors to renewed bets for Cedear, which in some cases, due to the effect of the fall of the domestic “cash with liquid” as well as the volatility in the New York stock exchanges, exhibited dramatic falls. in pesos in the local market in 2024. As today the pesos are “worth more” than at the end of last year, switching to these assets tied to the dollar can be an optimal exchange rate hedge in this sense. For example, Apple (AAPL) remains 49.5% in pesos in 2024 (on May 2 it will present balance), Tesla (TSLA) falls 12.5%, while Netflix (NFLX) gives up 57.1 percent.
Within this menu, the actions of Vista Energy (VIST)the oil company that presides Miguel Galuccio and which is making its mark in the unconventional field of Vaca Muerta, shows a drop of 46.2% in pesos in 2024, to $15,510, with an accumulated inflation of more than 60%, which leaves this paper at bargain prices.
“Thursday View reported its results for the first quarter of 2024, in what we could call a transition quarter, since the acceleration of its investment plan brought about greater cash needs and resulted in the installation of eleven new wells during the second half of the quarter, Therefore, it consequently fails to show a quarterly increase in production, something that we will see starting in the second quarter of 2024,” he stated. José Ignacio ThomeSenior Equity Analyst at SBS Group.
“We noticed a result that, although operationally, is within what we expected given the drop in activity levels; positively surprised. On the other hand, in the case of Vista Energy the first market reaction was negative; but in our opinion exaggerated. It is a balance that may leave little flavor -compared to the numbers that the company usually reports- but which is the prologue to greater growth,” indicated the experts of the IEB Group (Invest in the Stock Market).
Maximiliano DonzelliResearch Manager of IOL (InvertirOnline), added to the list Mercado Libre (MELI) which he highlighted “for its solid growth, financial stability and great returns. Looking at the company’s numbers, there are several indicators that make us think that it currently has an attractive valuation to invest in this Cedear. “We remain optimistic about the future of the company and believe that it still has a lot of room to continue growing its operations in Latin America.”
“We see it as attractive to position ourselves in MELI, with a target close to USD 1,700 for the medium term (today, at USD 1,440).(…) If we reach our objective, this would imply an increase of 18% in hard currency,” Donzelli stressed.
Among the technological giants that presented results last week, Alphabet (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT). These Cedears present profits in pesos of 33% and 19% respectively in 2024. Although the “upside” or expected margin of increase could be lower than the Cedears of Argentine companies, it does not go unnoticed that the profits are lower than what inflation was. domestic.
Juan Pablo Iacaruso, Equity International analyst at the SBS Group, pointed out that “we had the initial kickoff of the technology companies. There were announcements of excellent companies that earn above what the market expects, such as Alphabet, which presented results corresponding to the first quarter of 2024 with revenues of USD 80,540 million. Also Google Cloud, which generated USD 9.57 billion. AND Microsoft -one of the flagships of technology companies, with revenues of USD 61,860 million, driven by its Azure AI, which achieved 31% year-on-year growth, when the market expected 28% growth. With these results, they invite you to become a shareholder.”
Jorge Fedio, technical analyst at Clave Bursátil, observes for Alphabet “a picture of more rapid ‘bullish continuity’.” And he considered that “it is already the third largest company among the Big Tech by market capitalization. Technology company, in traditional search engines it dominates 90% of the market, but in Artificial Intelligence with the Bard application it competes with Microsoft’s ChatGPT. We have the ‘bullish continuity’ in sight, with the presentation of a good balance sheet and cash dividends it skyrockets with enormous gap of +12% and registers its historical record of USD 176.42, well above its classic ‘upward channel’ structure.”
