Argentine companies would have begun to recover financing in dollars according to the data reflected for the last months of the official exchange market. The figure would have reached USD 668 million in March, which also had an impact, according to analysts from the consulting firm 1816, on the increase in the stock of loans in dollars.
One of the first to notice the trend was the economist Fernando Marull, who calculated that net financing in March reached a somewhat lower figure, about USD 559 million, which he maintained is the first time this has happened in 5 years. The market assumption is that this financing is mostly “intra-company”, that is, parent companies assisting their companies in the country with loans.
Since the devaluation at the end of December and the first quarter of the year, the monetary authority purchased about USD 11.4 billion, a figure that corresponds to the volume of imports accrued but not paid
In 1816 they attributed this inflow of foreign currency to bank loans rather than to local companies that settled those dollars in the official market. The consulting firm also highlighted that the stock of loans in dollars grew between March and April by USD 2,000 million, which represents an increase of 55% in two months. As for Marull, the reading is that this is an encouraging fact. “Virtuous circle: deposits in dollars increase, banks no longer fear a run so much (so they no longer have cash in dollars for 100% of the deposits), export companies take the opportunity to finance themselves in dollars and the BCRA buys foreign currency,” he summarized.
He reached that conclusion after analyzing the behavior of the liquidation of foreign currencies in contrast with the accumulated commercial debt and the remaining “balance” of the dollars that entered the Central Bank and that allowed it to continue purchasing reserves.
Since the devaluation at the end of December and the first quarter of the year, the monetary authority purchased about USD 11.4 billion, a figure that corresponds to the volume of imports accrued but not paid. That is, the Central’s purchases in that period are largely explained by importers’ quota access to the market, which implied that the importers’ commercial debt continued to grow. However, the consulting firm noted in its weekly report that something began to change two months ago.
“In March in particular, Central purchases already exceeded the increase in import debt (USD 2.9 billion vs. USD 1.7 billion), which reflects that there is something more.” That is, about USD 1.3 billion of the monetary authority’s purchases during that month are explained by additional factors. “There is no complete data for April, but starting in the second fortnight (importers) could already access the MULC for the last 25% quota for those who imported at the end of December, which suggests that the commercial debt must not have grown. both in the month. Despite that, the BCRA purchased USD 3.3 billion in all of April and the net purchases of what was settled by CIARA were USD 1.4 billion, the second largest amount in history,” the report noted.
In 1816 they attributed this income of foreign currency to bank loans than to local companies that settled those dollars in the official market.
In other words, these purchases are not explained by the liquidation of agriculture nor by the import debt. “Our hypothesis is that it is due, in part, to the financing in dollars that banks are giving to local companies, which settle those dollars in the MULC,” he highlighted.
The logic behind this movement is, in part, the exchange anchor defended by the BCRA since with the official dollar rising 2% monthly and with access to the market to pay off obligations, “borrowing in dollars is a reasonable alternative to finance capital of “I work for net foreign currency exporting companies.” This is what explains, for the economists of 1816, the jump in the stocks of hard currency loans in the last two months.
