The National Administrative Department of Statistics, Dane, will reveal tomorrow the inflation data for April, for which financial analysts predict a new reduction since it began to slow down a year ago.
According to Citibank’s expectations survey of 26 market analysts and economic research centers, it is expected that April inflation fell from 7.36% to 7.15% on average. The projections range from a minimum expectation of 7.01% and a maximum of 7.30%.
No analyst predicts inflation below 7% in April. Among the highest expectations are those of Bancolombia Group (7.30%); Bank of Bogotá (7.25%); BTG Pactual (7.24%) and Banco Santander, Bbva and Colfondos, tying with 7.20%. and the projections Lower are Skandia and Axa Colpatria, with 7.01%, Banco Agrario (7.02%), Alianza (7.08%) and Anif (7.10%).
Although The projections are that the CPI will complete 11 months of declinesin April it would be the lowest reduction since this cycle of disinflation began in March of last year.
If expectations of 7.15% inflation in April are metthe figure would be reduced by only 22 basis points, below the average drop of 49 basis points that it had been sustaining for a year.
“We project 0.56% monthly and we have 7.16% annually. It will continue to slow down, we think that food can still help a little and rents They are already beginning to help very gradually, but the slowdown in inflation is becoming slower and slower, so that we think the year could end between 5.5% and 5.8%.“said Sergio Olarte, chief economist at Scotiabank Colpatria.
For her part, Andrea Ríos Serna, head of Macroeconomic Studies at Anif, He assured that the entity expects a monthly inflation of 0.5%, which would translate as an annual inflation of 7.1%.
“We hope that inflation will continue with the downward trend that it has been registering for a year,” Ríos noted.
However, although they expect a general downward behavior, The magnifying glass is on the regulated component.
“We are expecting lower data compared to the previous month, but this would be the component that would contribute the most to inflation due to the increases that have occurred in energy costs due to the El Niño Phenomenon and gives the important weight that the regulated component has in total inflation,” Ríos pointed out in his vision.
Julio Romero, chief economist of Economic Research at Corficolombiana, also agrees with this downward analysis of inflation. “Annual inflation would slow to 7.14%, its lowest level since the beginning of 2022, although its decline (-22 bps) It would be the slowest of the current disinflationary cycle,” Romero noted.
The analyst added that, from the entity, they expect a monthly variation of 0.57% vs 0.78% in April 2023. “Of the four large items, services, regulated and goods would register decreases in their annual inflation,” he mentioned.
Like his colleague, Romero assured that The El Niño climate event would put pressure on perishable foods, while regulated foods would be pushed by electricity and water.
For the Corficolombiana expert, rents would once again generate inflationary pressures, although it would be at a lower level, since the peak of indexation was in February.
Goods, according to Romero, would register downward inflation, “in line with the weakness of demand, which led to falls in sales of vehicles and clothing.”
