He central bank strongly slowed down the currency purchasing pace this Wednesday by registering a favorable balance of US$59 million for its intervention in the exchange market, the lowest amount of the monthand the The same thing that happened on May 9 when the CGT general strike took place. So, The monetary entity today reached a total of net purchases of US$17,000 million since the assumption of Javier Milei, which helped rebuild reserves. The meager purchase occurs on a day in which the rise of the blue dollar was accentuated, registering a new record by closing at $1,270 and financial currencies, Cash With Settlement and MEP.
Asked about the reason for the significant slowdown in the pace of purchases, the economist Amilcar Collante told iProfesional that “With the price of financial dollars on an upward trend, a certain retention in the settlement of exports is expected, since the Blend dollar allows for a higher exchange rate.” And he noted that “in addition, by lowering the interest rate they can be financed with a lower financing cost in pesos.”
In turn, the analyst Salvador Vitelli, in his account on the social network same term rose 14.7%”.
For its part, the operator Gustavo Quintana, of Pr Cambios, said that the lower positive balance is also due to the fact that “today there were more demand for payment of imports”.
At the same time, Juan Truffadirector of Outlier, alleged that the reason for the significant slowdown is not clear because “the volume (of liquidation) was not bad, it was above a couple of wheels where the volume had fallen, although agriculture had its delay it comes liquidating at a good pace, perhaps there was a debt maturity for which some province had to buy dollars to pay, we will have to see tomorrow if there is any news regarding that.
The market states that although the liquidation of the coarse harvest has begun, it is still below the volume expected due to seasonality at this time. 31% of the harvest was sold when the historical average is almost 40% for this height. In part, they say that it is slower because the bad weather caused by rains that delayed the harvest was influenced.
The BCRA strongly slowed down the purchase of currencies amid the rise of financial dollars
However, analysts PPI They speculate that after the last rate cut, “the lower spread between the rate in pesos and the crawling peg could have begun to discourage the liquidation of exporters.”
“Faced with a devaluation rate set at 2% monthly, the successive reductions in BCRA rates led to the rate-crawling differential being reduced from 159.4 percentage points of TEA at the beginning of the Milei administration to 7.3 percentage points of TEA when taking the Fixed term rate as a reference That is, given a lower cost of leverage, exporters could choose to postpone settlement and finance themselves in pesos while waiting for the opening of the stocks, although in our opinion the prospect of exit. this year it is losing strength.”
For its part, the Rosario Stock Exchange indicated that Today 4,644 trucks entered the ports of Gran Rosariowith which the cumulative total for the week amounts to 12,134 trucks, which represents an increase of 8.4% between weeks.
BCRA: purchases reach US$17,000 million in the Milei era
This Wednesday, the BCRA registered a net purchasing balance of US$59 million in the exchange market, which shows a strong deceleration compared to US$189 million the day before.
In this way, the monetary entity extended the buying streak to 16 consecutive rounds. Thus, the amount of gross reserves international was placed US$29,082 million, with which it rose US$22 million compared to the previous day, while in the month they increased US$1,507 million and in the year they grew US$6,011 million.
In the coming weeks, an IMF disbursement of US$800 million should arrive to reinforce reserves when the organization’s board of directors formally approves the eighth review of the program.
For some analysts, the latest rate cut could have begun to discourage the liquidation of exporters
Quintana indicated that the operated volume in the cash segment was US$330,047 million, which implies an increase of 8.5% in relation to the US$304,265 million negotiated in the previous round. And he maintained that “The excess supply continues to fuel BCRA purchases, which continue to register positive balances, even on a day with somewhat more active demand.”
With today’s favorable balance, the BCRA accumulates a positive result of US$2,231 million so far this month and accumulates net purchases of US$17,000 million.
Regarding the prospects, Necklace He noted that “it is expected that if the price of financial dollars stabilizes, liquidations will accelerate again and supply in the market will increase.”
In turn, Quintana predicts that in the midst of the liquidation of the thick harvest, the BCRA “will continue buying and in May they will exceed last month’s income.”
While the analyst Salvador Di Stefanothrough his account on the social network “The rise of the CCL dollar improves the price of soybeans that are in full harvest, the farmer should take advantage of these prices, they are very good looking at the USDA stock-to-consumption relationship.”
