The blender showed the limits to the Government. The last drop in rates and the drop in the yield of the LECAP tendered last week to 3.3% triggered the dollar and stopped the entry of foreign currency by exporters.
Today, agriculture is its own judge and executioner. When they liquidate too much, the exchange rate falls, because the price of cash with liquidation (CCL) is reduced, a market in which they can sell 20% of the dollars they enter. When they do not liquidate, the CCL stops having sellers and begins to rise. In the last 7 wheels it advanced $187.75 (+17.34%).
At the same time, soybeans are rising in Chicago in a saw-like manner and yesterday they recovered part of the USD 4.50 that they had lost the previous day and were trading at USD $457.83. A year ago, soybeans were worth USD 514.70.
The producers are stuck on their harvest and do not close prices with the exporters. The market feels it. Salvador Vitelli, financial analyst and agribusiness expert, estimated that in the last 5 days exports fell 20% and the CCL rose 14.7%.
That is why yesterday the MEP reacted with an increase of $60.32 (+5.3%) to $1,230.60, while the CCL increased $59.88 (+5%) to $1,256.19. The exchange cost is now just 2.3%. A week ago it was at 4%. The free dollar continued to be the refuge of small and medium savers and rose $45 to close at $1,275.
The entire market is undoing the carry trade because the blow of the last few days made them lose what they had earned in dollars. The peso yielded higher monthly rates than the price of the dollar. But the free note increased almost 25% in the month and was stronger than any gain in fixed term, fixed rate bonds or CER placements.
The price of the CCL is now close to that of the BOPREAL, the bond issued by the Central Bank to cancel debt with importers, which is equivalent to $1,345. According to Nicolás Cappella, a trader at Investing in the Stock Market, “there are rumors of dividend payments that would be going through CCL.”
Those who were doing carry trade, They practically broke their positions and returned to the dollars. That demand could be absent today. What is worrying is the agricultural sector that believes that at this rate it will have a better exchange rate due to Chicago prices and the rise in the CCL. The Government is confident that they will soon liquidate foreign currency again.
At Adcap Grupo Financiero, they indicated that the corrections in peso bonds continued due to the increase in the dollar concentrated in the LECAP issued last week. “Bonds tied to the dollar (linked dollar) that expire in September and next February were quoted higher, although with slight volume,” they noted.
The report from Andrés Reschini’s F2 consulting firm emphasizes that “there was no opinion for the Bases Law. This also hit bonds and the Merval, which have accumulated a loss of 7.2% in dollars at the CCL exchange rate in just two wheels.”
Meanwhile, in the Free Exchange Market (MLC), the volume improved to USD 330 million, but the demand from importers and companies due to the rise in financial dollars, left the Central room to buy only USD 59 million, which allowed it that reserves increase USD 22 million to 29,082 million.
F2 indicated that “with the latest improvements in the price of soybeans according to the international price and blend 80/20, the market expects a greater liquidation and this does not happen and could generate some inconveniences in the real economy, as we have already seen due to price increases, threatening the pace of disinflation. In futures the same dynamics were present as in the previous round. The increases continue with a little more volume at the same time that the yields of Treasury securities rise and the exchange gap widens. The curve adjusted with general increases that reached +1.84% in February 2025 and on two wheels increases of up to 5.1% accumulate by March 2025.
The titles that adjust by CER had a negative wheel because the inflation projected for May is less than 5%.
The gap between the CCL and the official dollar widened to 40%. Cappella noted that “the trade to buy dollar linked pointing out that this gap will converge to zero. With the surety at 2.8% monthly, the funding cost of the trade until the end of the year, it is around 18% versus the current 40% gap.”
Those who suffered the most were the holders of sovereign bonds. The losses of the Market’s leading titles, such as AL30D, exceeded 4%. “The day started with early selling and sharp declines across the entire curve. We saw sellers of AL35 and buyers of AL29 in pesos,” they said in Adcap. The truth is that the country risk flew 96 units (+7.4%) to 1,394 basis points, the levels they had at the beginning of last April.
Stocks were also punished. The Merval of the leaders lost 1.7% in pesos and 5.9% in dollars. The banks were battered. Supervielle fell 4.16% and BBVA, 3.78%.
ADRs – certificates of holdings of Argentine shares listed on the New York Stock Exchange – had widespread losses. YPF led the falls with 7.5%, followed by Galicia with 7.2% and Edenor with 7.1%.
The BOPREAL tender is expected today, which takes on a different meaning after the strong rise in the CCL that left the gap between the dollar that results from acquiring the bond and that of the market at 5%. The other question is whether the dollar reached its ceiling as the buyers who left the market disappeared. carry trade.
