The blue rises again and reaches $1,300 for the first time

Hear

The rise of the blue dollar does not stop. After the Central Bank (BCRA) reduced interest rates to values ​​lower than those expected by the market, on Tuesday of last week, free quotes responded to the rise and increases of up to $240 accumulate in the last eight wheels. However, faced with a greater supply of foreign currency from exporters, today financial exchange rates manage to reverse the trend.

In the streets of the City Buenos Aires, the parallel dollar returns to be the protagonist, since sells for $1285 in the caves and trees. In the early hours of the morning it reached $1,300 for the first time, although after noon it moderated the upward trend. Today it is up $10 compared to the previous close (+0.8%) and $165 in the first four days of the week (+14.7%).

If the panorama is expanded and analyzed from Tuesday, May 14, when the monetary entity cut the monetary policy rate to 40% annual nominal, The accumulated increase is $240 (+23%). In this way, the pax exchange rate that was registered in the last three months, despite the fact that inflation accumulated an advance of 65% until April.

“When these leaps are made, there is always an accumulation of reasons. There was an inflation of 120% from November to now, with a dollar that rose only 30% before starting this escalation. There is also broadcast. Although it has decreased, the Government continues to buy dollars and issues pesos to pay the interest on remunerated liabilities, although at a negative rate. And then, the interest rate cut, which I think was somewhat the data that triggered the rise of the dollar. Because? You turned around and saw a dollar ironed four months ago; But today, the ‘prize’ of staying in pesos is a rate that pays 2.5%-3.5% monthly. When evaluating risk-benefit, the saver began to see that the risk was greater than the benefit and decided to switch to the dollar,” said financial analyst Christian Buteler.

For the economist, politics also influenced. Just after completing the first six months of Javier Milei’s management, The Government has still not managed to pass laws and doubts are growing as to whether the financial fiscal surplus “is more of a blender than a chainsaw.”

The market also focused on the official wholesale dollar, and wonders if it is behind and the Central Bank should accelerate the pace of crawling peg (daily microdevaluations). “All those condiments helped the dollar start. We’ll see now, because once it starts, you never know where it stops. We will have to see if he finds some type of stabilization or, at least, a break,” she concluded.

However, after seven consecutive rounds of rise, today financial exchange rates are falling. These quotes are favored by a greater supply of dollars coming from the countryside, since exporters can settle 20% in this way, as long as the remaining 80% is done in the official way.

He MEP dollar GD30, which allows Argentines to dollarize without exchange rates, It is currently trading at $1,227.96. This is a drop of $2.6 (-0.2%), although the weekly advance is $201.3 (+16.4%) and has accumulated $193 since last Tuesday (+18.7%).

He dollar counted with settlement (CCL), used to transfer foreign currency to a bank account located outside the country, appears on capital market screens at $1,250.70. In this case, it means a daily drop of $5.7 (-1.9%), although in the hours around noon the falls were more pronounced. In any case, it accumulates an increase of $181.7 in the last four wheels (+14.5%) and of $175 compared to last Tuesday (+16.3%), the date on which it began to trend upward.

According to an analysis by the brokerage company Portfolio Personal de Inversiones (PPI), cash with liquid registers the highest percentage increase since January of this year. However, in real terms (when discounting US and Argentine inflation), This price is below its average of the last 10 years, of $1,283 at today’s prices. And it is even further away from its peak in Javier Milei’s administration, at $1,949 in real prices, a value it reached on January 18.

“With this exchange rate counted with settlement, the blend exporter also improved. Furthermore, the exchange gap is no longer at 20%, but at 40%, and we always said that A very low gap for a long time was a problem for the income of agrodollars. Now everything is being recalibrated. What is missing are signs, both in an improvement in liquidation or a rebound in activity,” added Fernando Camusso, director of Rafaela Capital.

This Thursday, the official wholesale exchange rate is trading at $890.50. In this way, the Central Bank validates a daily microdevaluation of $1 (+0.1%) and maintains the pace of crawling peg around 2% monthly. Compared to cash with settlement, the gap is 38.3%.

In a scenario of political tensions with Spain, lack of progress in the treatment of the Bases Law, an unfavorable context for emerging markets and a lower repurchase of reserves by the Central Bank, both Argentine stocks and bonds are once again tinged with red.

This Thursday, The Buenos Aires stock market registers a fall of 1.8% and is listed at US$1,235, adjusted cash value with settlement. In the panel made up of the main companies, Aluar’s shares fell 4.3%, followed by Ternium (-3.5%) and Telecom Argentina (-3.4%).

The same happens with Argentine stocks listed on the United States Stock Exchange (ADR). The papers of BBVA fall 4.9%, followed by Supervielle Bank (-4.6%), the Galicia Financial Group (-4.4%) and the Macro Bank (-2.7%).

“We maintain that, prior to the start of the debate in committee in the Senate, The market had a high probability in prices that the Bases Law and the fiscal package would be approved, even with changes proposed by the opposition. We believe that this delay could very partially explain the advance in the CCL as well as the falls in bonds and stocks on Tuesday and Wednesday. We reiterate that it is necessary, in the face of real economic normalization, to give greater firmness and solidity to the fiscal anchor. We say this because, despite the fiscal surplus shown in the first quarter, it is still necessary to provide greater medium-term sustainability to the fiscal anchor. For this reason, in the short term the fiscal package and its approval seem more relevant,” said Juan Manuel Franco, chief economist of Grupo SBS.

As for the bonuses From the last debt exchange, the Bonares (governed under local law) show drops of 1.9% (AL35D) and the Globals (foreign law) fall to 4.98% (GD29D). This impacts the risk country, which rises 35 units and stands at 1429 basis points (+2.5%).