After a strong bullish movement in the first hours of trading this Thursday that took it to exceed $1,300, the blue dollar moderated the rise and ended at $ 1,293 in Córdobaalready $1,280 in Buenos Aires, which in any case marks a new nominal record.
This behavior was accompanied by financial quotes. The MEP was trading at $1,265 but ended at $1,223, below Wednesday’s close, while the Cash with Settlement that had advanced to $1,275 also ended in the red at $1,250.
At the beginning the round threatened to become another day of high tension, but after noon the operators’ screens began to show currency offers and the situation was reversed.
The “parallel” dollar first fell to $1,290 to finally fall to $1,280 ($1,264 and $1,293 in Córdoba). In this way it added only $5 compared to Wednesday’s close.
Blue dollar: it started rising, the supply appeared and it moderated
Analysts’ opinions are mixed about the reasons for the change in trend.
While one group claims that there were “helping hands” positions from the government to stop the escalation and shows unusual screenshots to justify them, other respondents maintain that the offer seen in the last few hours was “genuine” and responds to a market who considered the value of $1,300 a ceiling.
“I am not aware of (the intervention) and of course that is unverifiable. But given the approach of the current authorities, it does not seem to me that they use a strategy like that. On the other hand, all the processes of increases and adjustments in quotes have their moments of pause and readjustment, we have to wait,” exchange operator Gustavo Quintana told this medium.
But regardless of the specific situation of the day, the focus continues to be on the current issues that have been dragging on for several days: the drop in the interest rate and the delay in the settlement of the harvest.
“The demand (for dollars) probably comes from the disarmament of rate positions in pesos. After the last rate drop, when the LECAPS went on the market they were aligned to the repo rate (which had dropped). So, from a portfolio decision it was time to break camp and that put pressure on the exchange rate,” said Nicolás Max Director of Criteria Finance.
About the delay in the harvest, an additional piece of information is added every day that confirms it.
Coninagro reported that producers only sold 34% of the production of the 23/24 campaign. The lowest level in the last 6 years.
As of April, the foreign exchange settlement for grain exports reached US$6,433 million. About US$1.2 billion above the same period in 2023 (hit by drought), but 40% lower than in 2022, which would be a more appropriate year to compare.
Hence, the volume operated in the Single and Free Exchange Market (MULC) suffers. In this Thursday’s round only US$257 million were traded, when as of this date it should be above $450 million. The daily average for the last five days barely exceeds US$110 million.
In this context, the Central Bank was barely able to purchase US$59 million, similar to Wednesday and well below what was calculated for this part of the year.
Hence, operators also observe that the bidding between the Government, the market and exporters for the level of the exchange rate periodically resumes.
In this fight the Government scored two points in favor this Thursday. The Central Bank completed the placement of Series 3 of Bopreal, for US$60 million, which was the remainder to be auctioned. This completes an important step in your balance sheet cleanup strategy by cleaning up past debt.
On the other hand, the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, reported that all energy companies accepted the proposal for bond payments, which implies a 50% haircut that Cammesa offered for the debt from last December and January.
The move is important because it helps consolidate fiscal stability, a central fact for economic analysts.
