In April, more imports were paid for than in previous months, but footfall continued. The new accumulated commercial debt explains 90% of the BCRA’s foreign currency purchases and exceeds what is channeled via BOPREAL.
Since the assumption of Javier Mileithe commercial debt accumulated exceeded US$12,000 million and it was a key piece of information that explained, to a large extent, the foreign currency purchases made by the Central Bank in that period. The data is derived from the information provided by the monetary authority in its April Exchange Balance, published this Friday, and does not take into account the large mass of commercial liabilities generated last year.
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It happens that, in April, the payment of imports continued to be stepped on, although to a lesser extent than in previous months. In the fourth month, foreign purchases for US$3,159 million were canceled through the official exchange market. This was 67% of the imports actually arranged in the same period.
This caused some US$1,490 million to be left unpaid, which increased the stock of commercial debt. According to Outlier calculations, the differential between paid imports (according to the BCRA) and purchases made abroad (according to the INDEC trade balance) amount to US$12,760 million since December.
The data refers to the volume of commercial debt accumulated in the current administration based on the continuity of a stocks exchange. Upon taking office, the current economic team found itself with a large stock of import liabilities exceeding US$40 billion, which it channeled through the issuance of a bond in dollars by the BCRA: the so-called BOPREAL. But the US$10,000 million placed in BOPREAL (of which around US$8.3 billion went to importers) were lower than the new commercial debt.
The current leadership of the Central implemented a scheme of staggered access to the official dollar for the payment of new imports, which are mostly settled in four monthly installments. Thus, so far in his administration, he obtained a window that allowed him to buy foreign currency in the official market to rebuild the languishing international reserves. In fact, according to economist Juan Manuel Palacios, the new commercial debt represents “90% of the amount purchased by the BCRA in the market.”
For its part, the GERES study group maintained that “this enormous difference (between canceled and processed imports), which represents a strong increase in commercial debt, “It decisively contributed, along with the recession, to the accumulation of net reserves of the BCRA for about US$9.5 billion in the same period.”
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As a result of the staggering, the gap between payments and imports concerted It is reduced month by month, but still still existing. By case, In December, only 17% of foreign purchases were cancelled; in January, 23%; in February, 41%; in March, 60%; and in April, 67%.
When the official data for May are known, the percentage is expected to grow again. However, the large volume of commercial debt accumulated in these months and the relatively moderate level of foreign currency purchases by the BCRA in the fifth month (in a context of a large harvest and payment of imports that is still restricted) are a call for attention regarding the possibilities of opening the stocks in the short term.
It is something that, in some way, the Minister of Economy himself recognized. Speaking recently at the IAEF, Luis Caputo said They still do not have sufficient reserves to remove exchange controls.
