Brussels is pushing ahead with Chinese electric vehicle tariffs of up to 38 per cent, brushing aside German government warnings that the move risks starting a costly trade war with Beijing.
The European Commission notified carmakers on Wednesday that it will provisionally apply the additional duties on imported Chinese EVs from next month.
The duties of up to 38 per cent will be applied on top of existing 10 per cent tariffs on Chinese EVs.
Brussels said that an investigation into the EV value chain revealed that it was “heavily subsidized in China, and that imports from Chinese [electric vehicles] presented a threat of clearly foreseeable and imminent injury to EU industry.”
European Commission vice-president Margaritis Schinas said that the commission had “reached out” to Chinese authorities to “explore possible ways to resolve” the issue. If no solution is found, the new duties will apply from July 4.
The tariffs, championed by France and Spain, will raise billions of euros for the EU budget annually as sales of Chinese EVs grow in Europe. China, the bloc’s largest trading partner, exported €10bn of electric cars to the EU in 2023, doubling its market share last year to 8 per cent, according to analysts at Rhodium Group.
Beijing has warned it would retaliate as it seeks to persuade a majority of EU capitals to oppose the new tariffs. Beijing is already applying a 15 per cent tariff on European EVs.
Germany, Sweden and Hungary have said they do not approve of the move, fearing Chinese retaliation. EU officials say Berlin put pressure on Ursula von der Leyen, who is seeking a second term as commission president, to drop the anti-subsidy investigation.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz recently warned that “isolation and illegal customs barriers.” . . “Ultimately just makes everything more expensive, and everyone poorer.”
But intense lobbying by Scholz’s government “has not worked,” said a person briefed on the process.
Different tariff rates will be applied to each carmaker with vehicles made by BYD, the world’s largest electric-vehicle manufacturer, incurring a 17.4 per cent rate.
Manufacturers that co-operated with the EU investigation but have not been sampled for individual rates would be subject to a 21 per cent average rate.
Those that had not co-operated will be hit by a 38 per cent rate, on top of the existing 10 per cent duties, still well short of the 100 per cent duties applied by the US.
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The additional tariffs in Europe will hit Chinese producers including BYD and SAIC, as well as companies such as Tesla which have factories in China. The duties may vary according to producer, depending on the level of subsidy the EU claims it has identified.
The Kiel Institute, an economic think-tank, found that an extra 20 per cent tariff on Chinese electric cars would reduce imports by a quarter. It calculated that with 500,000 vehicles imported in 2023, this corresponded to an estimated 125,000 units worth almost $4bn.
“The decline would largely be offset by an increase in production within the EU and a lower volume of EV exports, which would likely mean noticeably higher prices for end consumers,” the researchers concluded.
The commission expects Chinese EVs to hold a 15 per cent market share in the EU next year. It says prices are typically 20 per cent lower than those of EU-made models.
Valdis Dombrovskis, EU trade commissioner, acknowledged EVs were crucial for the green transition when he announced the investigation in October. But he added: “Competition must be fair.”
His department had amassed evidence that Chinese carmakers and their suppliers received subsidized loans, tax breaks and cheap land, according to officials.
China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian on Wednesday dismissed the EU’s anti-subsidy investigation as “a typical example of protectionism,” adding that the decision to impose additional tariffs “violates market economy principles and international trade rules.”
“Protectionism has no future,” he said. “Open cooperation is the right path.”
Many EU carmakers have condemned the plan, fearing China might respond in kind or even block them from their market. European brands accounted for about 6 per cent of EV sales in the country in 2022.
Germany exported 216,299 cars to China in 2023, a drop of 15 per cent on the year before; brands including Mercedes and Volkswagen also operate plants in the country.
Geely, one of the Chinese companies under investigation, owns Volvo of Sweden. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson has joined Scholz and Hungarian premier Viktor Orbán, who has courted Chinese EV investment, in publicly opposing the EU tariffs.
The three leaders would need to secure at least 11 other governments to overturn the commission’s decision on tariffs. Other central European countries such as the Czech Republic and Slovakia are expected to join the opposition.
Exporters of food and luxury goods such as Italy are also concerned about retaliation against products from the country.
But France, which pushed for the investigation to protect its own industry and force China to invest in production there, is unlikely to bend. Spain, another big car producer, has also indicated it would back tariffs.
Member states will be asked to vote on the tariffs before November 2. Definitive duties are usually imposed for five years.
Additional reporting by Wenjie Ding in Beijing
