He blue dollar reached a new nominal record this Tuesday, June 11 and closed at $1,295 for sale, after touching $1,300 intraday. Meanwhile, financial dollars closed mixed: the MEP rose and the CCL fell. In the midst of this dynamic, the forecast of 40 national and international economists from banks and consulting firms was known. The document estimates what the official exchange rate will be for the last month of 2024.
Participants in the June report FocusEconomics They highlight a downward trend in estimates of the official dollar and inflation for the end of the year, when comparing this edition with the figures from the previous survey. Thus, the consensus of experts indicates that the official wholesale exchange rate will be $1,331 at the end of December, a value similar to that already reached by the blue dollar. This data represents a decline of 65 pesos compared to last month’s projections.
Despite the significant devaluation last December and inflation that exceeded 25% monthly, the current outlook seems calmer. However, the economic contraction is the main concern.
Analysts highlight that the Government had a budget surplus of more than $1 trillion (US$1.1 billion) in the first quarter, in contrast to the deficit of $3.6 trillion in the fourth quarter of last year. Despite this, doubts persist about the coming months.
“The data for the first quarter are pessimistic: economic activity fell month on month throughout the quarter. As for the second quarter, the economic slowdown should be easing and the available indicators are moderately optimistic,” says FocusEconomics.
About inflation
“The economy will contract this year due to President Milei’s macroeconomic adjustment plan, which involves fiscal adjustment, currency devaluation and removal of price controls. However, a notable rebound in agricultural production should provide some support,” the report notes.
Regarding inflation, the downward trend in recent months stands out, reaching an increase of around 5% in May. “This year, inflation will average the highest in Latin America due to the elimination of price controls and the weakening of official and parallel exchange rates. A weaker than expected currency is an upside risk.” Consumer prices are expected to increase by 247.4% on average in 2024, which represents a reduction of 9.5 percentage points compared to the previous month’s survey.
Official dollar
Regarding the price of official dollar By the end of the year, several economists maintain that the Government will try to maintain the slow devaluation (crawling peg) of 2% monthly, although they warn that the exchange rate delay is evident and there could be a jump before the end of 2024. The consensus value for the dollar official wholesale price at the end of December is $1,331.1, a decrease of about 65 pesos compared to the May forecasts ($1,396). If this price is reached, the exchange rate will advance by 64.6% throughout the year, a level much lower than the projected inflation. From now until the end of December, projections indicate that it should rise 47.5%.
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The market consensus price for the end of the year of $1,331 exceeds the estimates of the Survey of Market Expectations (REM), published at the beginning of the month by the Central Bank, which surveyed 37 experts and where $1,174.7 is expected for December, about 125 pesos less compared to the May report.
Dollar Projections
- S&P Global Ratings – $2,100
- LCG -$1,812
- Fitch Ratings- $1,613
- Econviews- $1,609
- Capital Economics- $1,600
- Standard Chartered -$1,550
- MAPFRE Economics- $1,548
In the Matba-Rofex futures and options market, The wholesale exchange rate for next December was negotiated at $1,180, a value similar to that of the Central Bank report, but about 150 pesos lower than the FocusEconomics forecast.
