The financial dollars rise this Wednesday, June 19, after several days of calm in the exchange market after a series of positive events for the Government that brought greater certainty to investors. The operations take place in the middle of a holiday in the US, which removes reference for the CCL, and in the run-up to an XL weekend at the local level.
The dollar MEP rises 1.3% ($16.01) to $1,261.50, while that the “counted with liquid” breaks its bearish streak and rebounds 1.3% ($16.21) to reach the $1,280.38.
In this way, the gap between the “cable” the official exchange rate reaches 40.6%after having closed on Tuesday below 40%, something that had not happened since May 31.
The CCL has contracted almost $50 in the last six rounds, while the MEP also registered a significant decline after the approval of the Bases law, although it alternated with some slight increases.
It is worth remembering that the financial markets only had two days of activity this week due to the holidays commemorating the “Passage to the Immortality of General Martín Miguel de Güemes” and “Flag Day”, as well as the long weekend. tourist that was established for Friday.
A positive week for the Government brings calm to the markets
Between Wednesday and Thursday of last week the Government received two important “endorsements.” On the one hand, he got the swap renewal with China, which implies a saving of US$5,000 million for June and July, and, on the other, The Senate approved the Bases lawwith a package of liberal reforms well received by the markets.
Although it represented the first legislative victory of the Government of Javier Milei, the original project underwent a large number of modifications, which must be endorsed by Deputies.
In parallel, the IMF validated the review of goals of the agreement with Argentina and thus activated a new disbursement of US$800 millionINDEC announced the lowest monthly inflation data since January 2022 and this Tuesday the Ministry of Economy announced the fifth consecutive month with financial fiscal surplusachieved fundamentally by a sharp adjustment in spending and the contribution of the Income Tax.
Investors seek clarity on currency policy
While the Central Bank maintains the crawling peg in the order of 2% monthly for the wholesale exchange rate, a report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released on Monday indicates that the country committed to eliminating the export liquidation scheme under the ‘dollar blend’ modality, through which they can settle 80% of their currencies at the official price and 20% at the CCL, although the Secretary of Finance Pablo Quirno denied changes in the current scheme.
In a context of lower liquidations from exporters and an increase in the demand for foreign currency, the pace of Central purchases is at the lowest levels since Milei took office.with an average of US$1 million for the last five days and US$13 million for the last ten.
“The BCRA should explain what its monetary and exchange rate policy will be in the future, in order to lift the veil of what can happen in terms of investments,” said economic analyst Salvador Di Stefano.
After the aforementioned favorable economic data for the ruling party, investors’ eyes once again focus on political issues that give greater support to the Government to apply its policies.
“The attention of the week will continue in Congress, since after the approval of the Bases Law and the fiscal package in the Senate, both projects must be ratified by the Lower House to be converted into law,” said the compensation and Puente settlement.
