The Government managed to get the much-needed bill approved long-awaited Base Law in Congress, so in a calmer scenario for the market, the investment recommendations for a slightly clearer political and economic scenario. In this sense, analysts consulted by iProfesional lean towards the sovereign bonds in dollars and shares linked, in particular, to the energy segment.
In particular, it is estimated that there will be greater exchange rate tranquility, at a time when the Central Bank cannot accumulate reserves and concern arises about the lag in the price of the official dollar.
“With the Bases Law approved, the exchange rate should converge to more stable values, giving the Government some peace of mind in the short term.. This should be accompanied by an increase in the recovery of reserves, which slowed down in July,” he says. Gustavo Neffa, economist and analyst at Research for Traders (RfT) at iProfesional.
The fact is that the agricultural sector is liquidating foreign currency from exports, but the next few months will be of less net accumulation due to the dollar commitments to pay.
“Likewise, this will happen in a context of greater optimism because the Government is going to have its first laws passed and a certain legitimacy and political consensus”Neffa notes.
In this he agrees Juan Diedrichsa market analyst at Capital Markets, stating that “it is It is important that the Government manages to maintain the reform agendaand progress in market normalization.”
For its part, Juan BialetPersonal Finance Manager at Grupo SBS, added to iProfesional: “The approval of the fiscal chapter is key for the Government, since the possible success of money laundering depends on this, which would represent a significant inflow of dollars that would help reserves and collection. Likewise, I think a large part of what happened is already in the prices. and that the economic program that has worked until now needs a touch-up.”
Shares of companies linked, especially to the energy segment, are the most recommended by experts after the sanction of the Bases Law.
Actions recommended by the Bases Law
In this new more favorable scenario for the management of Javier Milei, the recommended company stocks According to the analysts consulted, they are mainly those linked to energy segment. Also some financial papers.
“I would focus on financial entities through Macro Bank and in utilities through Transportadora de Gas del Sur (TGS), which has a more than interesting expansion project. I also wouldn’t lose track of Vista Oil & Gas, that should recover, sooner or later, the price maximums, based on good production figures and an increasing oil price,” summarizes Neffa to iProfesional.
In the same line, Ezekiel Fernandez, Director of Corporate Research at Balanz, says that “We like Pampa’s shares because they should benefit from the TGS project, which would apply to RIGI for its shareholding. In addition, different chapters of the Base Law underpin the development planned for the Rincón de Aranda shale area, and could even participate partially in some LNG project”.
That is, the Incentive Regime for Large Investments (RIGI) contemplated in the Bases Law, could promote the entire energy segment First of all, something that will be capitalized by the companies that operate in that area.
In fact, Diedrichs also recommends companies in the energy sector, such as Vista, YPF and Pampa.
Suggested bonds to invest by Law Bases
Refering to rent fixedthe analysts consulted by iProfesional highlight that in this context, after the approval of the Law BasesIt is advisable buy sovereign bonds in dollars.
“More in the medium term, We believe that it is a good time to have lighter positions in sovereign bonds in dollars, given that the risks for the second half of the year will probably generate noise in the curve. Among these, we highlight the uncertainty surrounding the current exchange rate scheme and the eventual exit from the exchange rate restriction.which was already reflected in the compression of dollar linked instruments and the rise in futures in the last week,” he highlights. Lucas BuscagliaResearch Analyst at Balanz.
Bonds issued in dollars are the preferred hedge funds at the moment.
He added: “Although the economic programme has achieved several milestones, such as fiscal adjustment and lower inflation, the unresolved issues on the monetary and exchange rate side are generating doubts among investors, who are unlikely to accept much higher prices without clear signals in these aspects.”
With this scenario, he states that “we like” within the dollar space Global 2038 (GD38) since it is “a “interesting alternative for more pessimistic scenarios”.
For those looking for rotate From sovereigns to other types of assets, within the provincial space, Buscaglia shows that alternatives are emerging for various risk profiles. For those more conservative, select the Santa Fe bond (2027) and Chubut bond (2030).
Meanwhile, for those profiles more moderaterecommends the bonds of Cordoba (2027), Mendoza (2029) and Neuquen (2030), because they are “fiscally solid provinces and with greater carry than sovereigns.”
As for Diedrichs, he mentions that, from Capital Markets, “we are constructive with sovereign debt, especially the hard dollar bonds, Like the short bonareshe Debt bond to 2030 (AL30) and Boprealwith a medium-term horizon and a moderate profile.”
Furthermore, for those who are willing to take more risk and tolerate volatility, he recommends Global 2035 (GD35)for its appreciation potential.
In this role with maturity in 2035 and an IRR of 17% Bialet also agrees, stating that it is for a high risk, “to be the bond with the longest duration within the sovereigns, so it is the one with the greatest potential increase in the face of an eventual decrease in country risk.”
In the case of BoprealDiedrichs suggests issued in 2026 (series 3) (BPY26)as “the best alternative for conservative profiles and low tolerance for volatility.”
And for those who want to invest in dollar linked bondswhich are those that adjust based on the movement of the official exchange rate, this expert recommends that mutual funds (FCI) for its “diversification and ease of operation. In addition, it allows subscriptions and redemptions of low amounts.”
