Bloomberg Line — This week data will be published that account for the growth of the economies of Chile and Mexico. According to analysts at Bloomberg EconomicsFelipe Hernández and Adriana Dupita, the region would show disparate results.
In Mexico, preliminary data are likely to show a quarterly decline in first-quarter GDP that would reflect a temporary adjustment after two years of strong activity. With this, experts support their projection of more moderate growth in 2024.
In Chili, economists point to economic activity having slowed in March after strong monthly gains earlier in the year. These data would indicate strong GDP growth and a recovery in domestic demand in the first quarter. However, mining would be excluded from the bullish trend.
Get to know: These are the notable events and indicators of the week
On the other hand, in Colombia, Hernández and Dupita expect the central bank to reduce rates from 12.25% to 11.75%. “Tight monetary conditions, slowing inflation and weak domestic demand support additional cuts. “The central bank’s quarterly monetary policy report is likely to anticipate a gradual easing cycle,” they said.
Below are the economic events of the week by country and day:
Chili
He Tuesday April 30 will be published Retail sales for March 2024, which likely rose 3.6% year-on-year, implying a strong rebound after a 0.6% month-on-month drop in February, according to Bloomberg Economics. According to these forecasts, retail sales should increase slowly this year.
That same day the figures of Industrial production for March 2024. The experts consulted believe that there will be an increase of 4.4% compared to the previous year, which would mean a small monthly drop after practically no change in February and a month-on-month growth of 2.1% in January.
For his part, the Thursday May 2 will be announced Economic Activity Index for March of 2024, which could increase by 2.1% compared to the previous year. If so, it would see a small decline from the previous month after strong gains in February and January.
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Colombia
He Tuesday April 30 will take place Central Bank Monetary Policy Meetingduring which the aforementioned economists expect a reduction in rates from 12.25% to 11.75% to be announced, a measure that would follow the 50 basis point cut seen in March and that would bring total flexibility to 150 basis points since the cycle began in December.
The Central Bank’s Quarterly Monetary Policy Report will also be published sometime this week, and with it updated growth and inflation forecasts, as well as a revised monetary policy outlook. It is believed, according to Bloomberg Economicsthat the document will report greater growth than expected in the first quarter and slower inflation than expected until March.
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Mexico
He Tuesday April 30 will be published on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) the first quarter 2024, draft version. Hernández and Dupita project that the figure grew by 2.6% compared to the previous year, which implies a quarterly contraction of 0.2%, after a growth of 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2023.
For his part, the Thursday May 2 will be announced Gross Fixed Investment for February 2024. Experts expect the figure to have increased 12.9% from a year earlier, although that implies a monthly drop after small gains in January and December. This data would be consistent with more moderate growth in 2024.
