The most recent voluntaristic illusion that the Cuban Government seems to be clinging to in recent weeks is science, technology and innovation. The minister of the sector, Eduardo Martínez Díaz, already said it days ago in a meeting headed by President Miguel Díaz-Canel, insisting on those words like a mantra: “The formula to get out of the situation we have is using science, introducing its results, applying technologies, innovating in all aspects.”
This Monday, the official press reiterates the issue, in an article signed by the same Minister of Science, Technology and Environment and his vice minister, Armando Rodríguez Batista, where they explain the “priorities” when implementing the plan. Within an imprecise list of wishes – such as “orienting science and innovation projects more towards the solution of specific problems”, “achieving greater interconnectivity between actors” or “enhancing incentives for innovation at different levels” – stands out one objective: “increase investment in research and development activity.”
In addition to including “financing in convertible currencies” in this, officials emphasize that at the same time it is necessary to “diversify sources,” opening the door to money from private companies, although without saying so specifically.
At no point is it mentioned where and how that money could come from.
Outside the text, in a graph, it is stated that “2,184 million pesos are planned” for “17 national programs, 10 sectoral programs and 63 territorial programs in the area of technology and innovation.” Included are 525 million pesos for the National Science and Innovation Fund and 100 million for the National Environment Fund. At no point is it mentioned where and how that money could come from.
The Cuban economist Pedro Monreal has not been slow to question the numbers, demolishing in a long thread of
Firstly, he asserts that with a national investment of almost 97,000 million pesos in 2023 in all sectors – “a level in itself insufficient for economic recovery,” he clarifies – “the figures announced for ‘support for science and innovation’ are simply not relevant.” It is “one of the most insignificant sectors in Cuba,” continues Monreal, with an average of 0.81% between 2011 and 2023, “very distant from tourism investment.”
The economist concedes that the ruling party recognizes that the relative weight of investment in science and innovation is insufficient, but then, he continues, “the reasoning becomes confusing when identifying it as a problem of statistical ‘under-recording’.” If the current weight were doubled, Monreal suggests, from 0.55% to 1.1%, “science-innovation would continue to be one of the five least relevant sectors in innovative investment.”
If the current weight were doubled, Monreal suggests, from 0.55% to 1.1%, “science-innovation would continue to be one of the five least relevant sectors in innovative investment”
In the graph that the economist shares, in fact, it is striking that the State will dedicate only 0.55% of its total investments to this sector in 2023, much less than in 2011, when it gave 1.14%.
Likewise, the specialist harshly states that “there seems to be some official difficulty in understanding the scale of the innovative investment deficit, the part of the institutional fabric where it should be concentrated, the high risk of this type of investment and the viability of possible sources.” of financing” and criticizes: “Assuming that innovation would be promoted in Cuba without a significant jump in investment in innovation at the company level (not only in research centers) is an incorrect assumption.”
Another “serious problem” with the official explanation that Monreal observes is that “the financing of innovative investment is presented mainly in terms of abstract desire” and that the “key point” of “the sources of business financing” is not clear. “The profits would be insufficient,” she says.
A true investment in innovation, he indicates, “is a long-term, high-risk process, and therefore very difficult to predict in terms of results and return on investment.” “The Cuban business system has neither effective economic calculation, nor diversity of ownership in firms with scale, nor access to decentralized financing mechanisms, nor the competitive environment necessary for them to function as a locus of innovation,” Monreal concludes about the umpteenth hope for get out of the permanent crisis.
