The El Niño phenomenon, which affects the global climate, has begun to retreat. During the remainder of June, the waters of the Pacific will remain in a neutral phase, and then move on to a cold phase starting in July with the arrival of La Niña. This cold phase will persist throughout spring 2024 and summer 2025, which will probably result in a rainfall deficit starting in the second half of winter.
The above is detailed in the report “Climate analysis May 2024” carried out by the Dr. Paula Santibáñez, head of the Climate Observatory of the Faculty of Natural Sciences of the San Sebastián University, which offers a vision of the climatic conditions expected for the rest of the year 2024 and the summer of 2025 in Chile.
The expert also points out in her report to the importance of take the effects of climate change seriously. As he explains, this “presents a different reality, with mostly irreversible effects, leaving permanent traces that exceed the human capacity to remedy them,” so it would be essential “redesign our ways of coexistence with a different nature, less welcoming and generous in food resources, and impoverished in its biological diversity.”
Precipitation and Temperatures
According to the report, Precipitation until the end of May was close to normal ranges, but higher than usual in the Metropolitan Region. The above, because the fronts have continued to enter and rise.
Now that it is mid-June, it is observed that rainfall persists in the country, especially in the central and southern areas, where heavy rains were forecast this week. However, this situation could change in a few weeks, since The anticyclone could adopt a blocking position, resulting in a decrease in rainfall from July onwards.
Specifically, in July, a rainfall deficit is anticipated on the coast, while in the mountain range rainfall could be close to normal.
Regarding temperatures, the month of May has recorded Temperatures lower than normal from Santiago to the south and above normal from Santiago to the north. This is due to an anomalous displacement of the anticyclone towards the extreme south, allowing the entry of cold sub-Antarctic air.
For the remainder of June and July, temperatures are expected to be slightly above normal north of Santiago and approach normal south of this region. which is positive for snow accumulation.
Snow Coverage and next summer
As of May 31, snow coverage reached 21,000 km² between the regions of Coquimbo and Biobío, compared to 6,500 km² last year on the same date.
This increase is due to a greater rainfall in the central zone and at low zero isotherms, which has allowed a significant accumulation of snow in the mountain range.
However, although the situation has improved compared to the previous year, there are still important deficits, especially in the Coquimbo region.
By summer 2025, the cold phase of Pacific waters will continue, suggesting the likelihood of dry conditions. Spring 2024 could bring cold episodes of polar origin, typical of La Niña, indicating that there could be possible frosts.
Dr. Paula Santibáñez emphasizes the importance of adapt to a new climate reality. With the withdrawal of El Niño and the entry of a cold phase, It is likely that a deficit of rain and cold spells will be experienced in the coming months.
