Hurricane Season 2023: More cyclones could hit Jalisco this year

At the National Civil Protection Meeting it was announced that During the rainy season, approximately 15 or 16 cyclonic systems will take place on the Pacific Ocean side, which is equivalent to 30% more of activity in this horizon of the country as a result of the El Niño phenomenon that can even prolong the rains until the month of December.

According to the report issued by the Climate Prediction Center and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, with the presence of the El Niño phenomenon, more activity is expected in the Pacific Ocean and less in the Atlantic, in addition to having the possibility of reaching heavy rain category.

What does the phenomenon of the child with the rains imply?

Maydes Barcenas, a Meteorologist at the Institute for Astronomy and Meteorology (IAM), explained that the El Niño phenomenon is the warming of the waters of the Pacific Ocean, its presence and the cyclonic activity of the planet in short provide the ideal conditions for the manifestation of cyclonic systems.

“The El Niño phenomenon implies a warming in those Pacific waters, since obviously the relationship with the cyclonic activity in the northeastern and northeastern Pacific is greater or is always expected to be greater than the average frequency of tropical cyclones that occurs year after year, the average frequency in the Northeast Pacific, it is 16 tropical cyclones and in the Atlantic it is 10 tropical cyclones, what does this mean that if we have a child year what it is expected that there will be 23 more organisms than what normally occurs not or what this historical average tells us is the normal behavior of the Pacific Ocean,” he explained.

How many hurricanes are expected?

The first predictions, according to the authorities, They speak of an approximate total of 16 to 22 systemswhich could be diversified as follows: From 9 to 11 tropical storms, from 4 to 6 hurricanes in category 1 or 2, and from 3 to 5 hurricanes between categories 3, 4 and 5. Of all the events it is expected that at least 5 impact the entire Mexican Pacific coast.

The IAM meteorologist assured that despite the predictions, nothing is certain, due to the various factors that intervene in the climate and that to guarantee a precise climatic event of a tropical cyclone, the National Hurricane Center handles it up to five days before, for what he recommended be aware of the notices of the authorities and reliable sources, He also added to take the necessary precautions, especially in the areas with the greatest impact, but above all he indicated that they should not be alarmed.