Until the beginning of October of this year, the UN recalled, 86 days were recorded with temperatures higher than 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels.
Photo: Getty Images/EyeEm – Gerhard Pettersson / EyeEm
The current policies of countries to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases are insufficient and lead the Earth this century to an increase in global temperature of 3 degrees compared to the pre-industrial era, the UN warned today. (Can read: Disagreements in negotiations to have a global treaty on plastics)
The promises of the international community, therefore, are still far from achieving the objectives of the Paris Agreement (2015), which seeks to limit the rise in temperature to less than 2º C and, ideally, to 1.5.
The Nairobi-based UN Environment Program (UNEP) issued that warning in its 2023 “Emissions Gap Report”, which it published ahead of the ten-day start of the UN Conference in Dubai. on Climate Change (COP28), the main political forum to address the climate crisis.
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Titled this year “Record broken: temperatures reach new highs, but the world fails to reduce emissions (again)”, the study compares the actual drops in greenhouse gases with those needed to combat global warming. (You may be interested in: They warn about a possible landslide near the Nevado del Tolima)
UNEP stresses that changes are needed globally to achieve cuts of 28% and 42% in greenhouse gas emission forecasts between now and 2030 for a path towards 2 degrees and another towards 1, 5 degrees, respectively.
“There is no person or economy left on the planet that is not affected by climate change, so we must stop setting unwanted records for greenhouse gas emissions, global maximum temperatures and extreme weather,” said the Executive Director of UNEP, Inger Andersen.
Andersen advocated “setting other records: in emissions reductions, in green and just transitions and in climate financing.”
Until the beginning of October of this year, the UN recalled, 86 days were recorded with temperatures higher than 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels.
Last September was the hottest month ever recorded, with average global temperatures 1.8 degrees above pre-industrial levels. (You can also read: Europe will no longer receive products from deforested areas. What does it mean for Colombia?)
The report found that global greenhouse gas emissions increased by 1.2% from 2021 to 2022 to reach a new record of 57.4 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.
This measurement, whose acronym in English is GtCO2e, serves to quantify the mass of greenhouse gases based on their warming potential.
G20 emissions increase
Emissions of these gases in the G20 (group of developed and emerging countries) increased by 1.2% in 2022.
“If mitigation efforts under current policies continue at current levels, global warming will only be limited to 3 degrees above pre-industrial levels this century,” UNEP warned.
Full implementation of countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) – which include each nation’s planned emissions and mitigation measures – would lead to “limiting temperature rise to 2.9°.”
“Conditional NDCs (when targets depend on external financial support) fully implemented would result in temperatures that would not exceed 2.5° degrees above pre-industrial levels,” he added. (You may be interested in: COP28 is approaching, a possibility for climate action to re-emerge)
The report considered that if all conditional NDCs and long-term “net zero” greenhouse gas emissions pledges are implemented, “limiting the temperature rise to 2 degrees would be possible.”
However, he noted, “net zero promises are not currently considered credible,” as “none of the G20 countries are reducing emissions at a pace consistent with their net zero goals.”
Even in the “most optimistic scenario,” he added, the probability of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees “is only 14%.”
The report urged all countries to make transformations for low-carbon development throughout the economy, with a focus on the energy transition.
According to the UN, the most capable and responsible nations in terms of emissions (particularly those in the G20) will have to “take more ambitious and rapid measures and provide financial and technical support to developing countries.”
Looking ahead to COP28, which will take place until December 12, the study highlighted that this conference will carry out the first Global Assessment (GST) since the Paris Agreement.
The GST will reveal the next round of NDCs that countries should submit in 2025, with targets for 2035.
“The global ambition in the next round of NDCs,” UNEP stressed, “must bring greenhouse gas emissions in 2035 to levels consistent with trajectories towards 2 degrees and 1.5 degrees.”
In addition, this round offers the opportunity for low- and middle-income countries to develop “road maps” of ambitious climate and development policies, and set clear objectives that require financial and technological assistance.
“COP28,” he concluded, “should ensure that international support is provided for the development of such roadmaps.”
