Specialists from the Institute of Meteorology (Insmet) of Cuba predicted that this year’s cyclonic season will be quite active, with the formation of around twenty of these tropical phenomena throughout the North Atlantic.
A report prepared by the Forecasting and Climate Center of that institution anticipates that 11 of these cyclones could reach the category of hurricane, due to the speed of their sustained winds, the greatest cause of destruction they cause in their path.
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Regarding the points of origin of these tropical organisms, experts predict that, of the total predicted, the majority (14) would begin to form in the waters of the Atlantic Ocean, four in the Caribbean Sea and only two in the Gulf area. from Mexico.
The report also speaks of an 85% probability that one of the cyclones will intensify until it becomes a hurricane in the Caribbean Sea; while there is a 70% chance that a cyclone from the Atlantic will become a hurricane.
The probability that at least one hurricane will affect Cuban territory is 80%, a projection that rises to 90% in the case of tropical cyclones.
All evaluations are based on the fact that “the fundamental oceanic and atmospheric conditions that regulate tropical cyclonic activity over the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea will be favorable for the cyclonic season to be active,” the report reads.
Hurricane parade. This is what the hurricane season in the Atlantic promises to be like
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Cuban specialists highlight that the development of climatic events such as El Niño and La Niña, as well as the high values of sea surface temperature recorded in the tropical strip of the North Atlantic between June 2023 and April of the current year, will also influence the high formation of cyclones.
“The regional atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic has shown signs of active behavior during the months of March and April, which constitutes another favorable condition for the development of cyclonic activity,” adds the Insmet report, which will update your predictions on the topic on August 1st.
Last year, the forecasts of a “normal or not very active” season were not met due to the formation of at least 17 tropical phenomena in that period of time. In this way, the average of 14 events of that type was exceeded.
Cuba: cyclone season exceeds forecasts by reaching “active” category
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Of the total, six reached hurricane status, including those named Franklin, Idalia and Lee, which were notable for their intensity. The last one reached category five – the highest – on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Seen by training zones, the North Atlantic area occupies the top place, with a total of 13 events, while the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea register two.
