(CNN) — When Hamas declared on Monday night that it had “accepted” a ceasefire agreement, it took many by surprise. Evidently, Israel was not expecting this and it was not even immediately clear what Hamas had agreed to.
Hamas’ announcement was initially greeted with joy in Gaza and cautious optimism from regional leaders, after being presented as acceptance of an Israeli proposal. But Israel issued what appeared to be a wait-and-see position, saying Hamas’s stance was “far” from meeting its demands.
And he pressed ahead with a controversial military operation in Rafah, south of Gaza, carrying out airstrikes on Monday and taking control of the Palestinian side of a border crossing with Egypt on Tuesday morning, amid intense pressure from his line coalition. hard.
At the same time, Israel said it would send a delegation to Cairo to assess Hamas’s position. CIA Director Bill Burns also arrived in Cairo on Tuesday morning.
So what is going on?
What we know about the Hamas proposal
Hamas declared this Monday that it accepted an Egyptian-Qatari proposal for a ceasefire and an agreement on hostages in Gaza, which includes a ceasefire, the complete withdrawal of Israeli soldiers from Gaza, an exchange of captives, the reconstruction of the territory and the lifting of the Israeli blockade of the enclave.
Hamas’ offer would begin with the release of 33 Israeli hostages in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners over a 42-day period, and would end with the reconstruction of Gaza during “a period of sustainable calm,” according to a document shared with CNN by a regional source familiar with the negotiations.
A diplomatic source familiar with the talks previously told CNN that the reference to sustainable calm was “a way of agreeing to a permanent ceasefire without calling it that.”
The agreement would be divided into three phases, each lasting 42 days. It would include a possible Israeli withdrawal from Gaza in the second phase, according to the document seen by CNN.
But US officials have rejected Hamas’ claim that it had “accepted” a ceasefire agreement, calling the response a counterproposal with changes. That counterproposal will need more negotiation, they said, and is being treated as a communications tactic to publicly demonstrate that Hamas is willing to reach a deal.
What has been the response from Israel and other countries?
Israel says the deal offered by Hamas is not the one Israel helped hammer out with Egypt last week, and Benny Gantz, a member of the war cabinet, declared Monday that Hamas’ version “does not correspond to the dialogue held so far.” with the mediators and presents important gaps.
However, Israel is sending a working delegation to meet with Egyptian and Qatari mediators to better understand the proposal and determine whether an agreement can be forged, an Israeli official told CNN.
The main obstacle is the question of a permanent ceasefire and how to address it in the agreement. The Hamas proposal calls for an end to the war, which is a red line for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a senior US official told CNN.
Tens of thousands of Israelis demonstrate with families of hostages against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv, demanding an immediate deal on the hostages and general elections, in Tel Aviv, Israel, on April 6. Credit: Matan Golan/Sipa/AP
Frank Lowenstein, who served as special envoy for Israeli-Palestinian negotiations under US President Barack Obama during the 2014 Israel-Gaza war, told CNN that this may be “the moment of truth for the game.” of blame that both sides have been playing with the ceasefire negotiations.
“Hamas has apparently accepted the constructive ambiguity about the duration that the mediators have been proposing, along with ‘guarantees’ of a permanent ceasefire that are obviously not enforceable,” Lowenstein said, adding that it is now up to Netanyahu, “he prefers “Much more to invade Rafah for their radical coalition policy than to have a ceasefire that could end the war and probably bring elections.”
What relationship is there between the talks and the Israeli operation in Rafah?
Israel argues that Rafah is Hamas’ last stronghold in Gaza, and Netanyahu last week vowed to launch a ground operation there regardless of a deal with Hamas and in defiance of U.S. pressure not to go ahead.
On Monday night, the Israeli military carried out airstrikes against what it said were Hamas targets in eastern Rafah. On Tuesday morning he had taken control of the Palestinian part of the Rafah border crossing with Egypt, replacing Palestinian flags with Israeli flags in a show of control. The operation came after the Israeli army ordered the immediate evacuation of some 100,000 residents of northern Rafah.
The border crossing is a “strategic location” for Hamas, CNN political and world affairs analyst Barak Ravid told CNN’s Anderson Cooper, adding that it is considered a symbol of Hamas’ continued control of Gaza.
Israel’s seizure of the crossing may have damaged Hamas’ image among the Palestinian people of Gaza, and acts as leverage to make Hamas “more flexible in the hostage talks,” he said.
The Rafah operation was not on the scale of a major ground incursion that the United States had warned against, but it may have been designed to appease some of the radical ministers in Netanyahu’s cabinet who have been pressuring him to press ahead with an invasion of the city and threatening to collapse his coalition if he does not comply.
US officials told CNN on Tuesday that the Biden administration does not believe the Israeli military activity in Rafah is the start of a major operation in southern Gaza, and a source familiar with Israeli plans said a limited raid on Rafah was intended The aim is to maintain pressure on Hamas to accept an agreement that would lead to a ceasefire and the release of the hostages.
An operation in Rafah could benefit both Israel and Hamas, said Lowenstein, the former US negotiator.
“Bibi (Netanyahu) wants to show how tough he is by standing up to us (the United States) and the world to defend Israel. And Hamas believes he is falling into a trap in Rafah that will leave Israel even more isolated, even from the United States, and subject to even greater international condemnation.
Displaced Palestinians, who left Rafah, southern Gaza, with their belongings following an evacuation order from the Israeli army, arrive in Khan Younis on Monday. Credit: AFP/Getty Images
What is at stake for Netanyahu and Hamas?
Hamas and Israel accuse each other of hindering an agreement and prolonging the war.
Experts affirm that both parties are pressing with disproportionate demands because their political survival depends on it.
Netanyahu finds himself in a difficult situation. He faces intense pressure from his closest international allies and the families of Israeli hostages to accept a ceasefire agreement and avoid a full-scale invasion of Rafah, as well as the need to force supporters of the hardliners of their fragile coalition, who do not want it to stop until Hamas is eliminated.
Hamas is also wary of its fate if the war ends without a guarantee of a permanent ceasefire.
Since the brief ceasefire agreement in November, Hamas has not been interested in an agreement with Israel that does not include a permanent end to hostilities, Lowenstein explained, as the group believes it is the only scenario that guarantees its survival.
“Both sides just want a ceasefire agreement that guarantees their political survival,” Lowenstein said. “For Hamas, this is a permanent ceasefire that allows it to retain some military capacity. For Bibi, it is just a temporary pause on the path to ‘total victory.'”
Hussein Ibish, senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, says that although both Hamas and Netanyahu believe they have benefited politically from the continuation of the conflict, domestic pressure has been mounting for both to end hostilities. .
“Hamas is under enormous pressure, including to some extent from its own leaders who live outside Gaza, to accept ceasefire proposals from Egypt and Qatar in order to gain some breathing space for the organization” and relief for Palestinians in Gaza, Ibish told CNN.
Hamas may be aware that it has a better chance of surviving than Netanyahu, even if the group reemerges in a different guise, he says.
“Hamas will survive. It is a political organization and it has made a name for itself. It is not a list of individuals who can be killed or infrastructure and equipment that can be destroyed,” Ibish told CNN. “Netanyahu, on the other hand, both personally and politically will not survive forever.”
— This is a developing story.
CNN’s Abeer Salman, Becky Anderson and Jeremy Diamond, Christian Edwards, Mostafa Salem, Nic Robertson, Lauren Izso, Michael Williams, Oren Liebermann, Benjamin Brown, Jennifer Hansler, Alex Marquardt, Ibrahim Dahman, Tim Lister, Michael Schwartz, Lauren Said- Moorhouse, Eugenia Yosef, Tareq El-Helou and Kareem Khadder contributed to this report.
