The Ukrainian war may improbably end soon or extend two, three or more years. Nobody knows, although doubts on the ground multiply because there is no room for the defeat of either side or a path to a balanced agreement.
It is also not clear whether the very thin threads that hold within their space the worst war conflict in Europe since the second war of the last century will not end up breaking. triggering a global disaster. This debate is multiplied by the advances in the war that Russia has recently achieved with which it intends to establish a position in its favor in an eventual dialogue.
On the other hand, Volodimir Zelensky’s government is betting on opening a negotiating door in a world meeting for peace which is organized in Switzerland for next month. He aspires to have a hundred heads of government accompany him in this attempt and to display unique global support that strengthens his ten-point program that includes the condition of the withdrawal of Russian troops from its territory. Moscow has not been invited to that meeting and there is the version that China or Brazil would condition their assistance on the Russian presence.
The Kremlin raises another peace proposal that autocrat Vladimir Putin has just defended in Minsk, Belarus. It translates easily: you have to accept the reality on the ground, That is to say, what the military conquered in the war, just under 20% of Ukrainian territory, has no return. Includes the Crimean peninsula.
Is the red line that the Zelensky government is neither willing nor able to cross. “If Russia wants to end the war, if it withdraws from our territories, the war will end immediately” Vice Chancellor Iryna Borovets says emphatically to this envoy and four other Latin American journalists. and repeat “immediately”.
Then he attacks a topic often heard here about the crimes committed by Russia in this war “against humanity, murders, deportations, kidnapping of children” and the need for effective justice. That is to say, kyiv demands withdrawal of troops and sanctions.
The official highlights the enthusiasm shown at the meeting in Switzerland, but that meeting does not seem really designed to open a negotiation. That’s why they haven’t invited Russia, they justify in President Zelensky’s office. Oleksandr Bevz, advisor to the president, describes that the summit is a first step “to establish the bases for future negotiations.”
A data that is imprecise enough to bet that attendance will expand as there is no effective commitment to fix a position. In that line, the “peace conference” He would seek to convince the Kremlin, by political weight, that it must back down to close the contest. The risk of this attempt is that it makes the presence of key countries such as the People’s Republic, an ally of Russia, which has not yet announced what it will do, or India itself, which has already given signs that it would attend although it did not indicate the level of the delegation.
The supposedly liquid agenda of the meeting is noted in the description prepared by Bevz, which indicates that there will be points to discuss related to nuclear control or the environment, striking priorities at a time when attacks on populations north of Kherzov or towards the border province of Chernigog are multiplying.
In Ukraine it is maintained that this war of aggression did not begin in February 2022, when Russian troops attacked the country, violating all international legality. It was, however, ten years ago, when Putin seized the Crimean Peninsula in 2014. The notion behind this criterion, which is echoed by the political and military leadership, but also by the people on the plain, has given meaning to the resistance against the invasion.
Crimea was the first chapter and the current war the second of a book that is announced to be very extensive. For Ukrainians, Putin will not stop until he devours the entire country. The same perception that makes Eastern Europe angry.
An interesting voice here is that of Ambassador Valery Chaly, who represented his country in the United States during the past three North American governments. This loquacious and didactic diplomat does not dispute the notion of the ten years of war, but he does warn thatThe conflict is likely to last for a long time. because of the difficulties that an agreement presents.
Europe will get much more involved
He rules out direct action by NATO, but points out that Europe will get much more involved, “We will see next winter”, predicts and points out that David Cameron, the British chancellor, has already given the green light to Ukraine to use its missiles within Russian territory. A demand from Zelensky to the US, to be allowed to fire the offensive projectiles at the moment they leave from the other side of the border, which, according to the president, would not constitute an attack on Russia, but would prevent the damage it suffers. now Kherson, for example.
European involvement will occur through a deployment of forces in Russia’s neighborhood, around Ukraine, such as the exercises that are carried out in the Arctic since March and until next month with the participation of the US, Finland, Sweden and Norway, explains the ambassador. Chaly does not see a difficulty for Ukraine if Donald Trump wins. “National security is defined by his advisors, I met Trump in Washington and he will do what they advise him and Ukraine is part of US national security.” holds.
“Putin was wrong to attack Ukraine, and he can be wrong again if he does not open a door,” says. He explains that two or three more years of war could cause Russia “the same calamity that extinguished the Soviet Union.” Pragmatic, he discounts that Your country must give in if there is a dialogue. “Something will have to be negotiated.” Remember that the Constitution prohibits any pact that advances territorial unity, “But as you know, the Constitution can always be reformed.”
