“We will return to International financial markets in 2026 and only with the intention of rolling debt, not taking new indebtedness” He specified a Amit A high source of the Casa Rosada.
“The Ministry of Economy and the Customs Collection and Control Agency (ARCA) are working rapidly to facilitate the use of dollars ”, He also revealed this source. It happens that the government does not want to issue pesos and, according to the president, the economy would grow at 8% rates in the second semester, where more money will be needed.
In his Wednesday exhibition Milei also said “We believe that at some point we will get “to the band’s floor” reiterating the Government’s decision to discuss the dollar to fall to 1,000 pesos.
It is considered that the intention of the official conduction is Send a strong signal that aims to decelerate inflation After the rebound (3.7%) of March. In this sense, decisions such as 4% drop in gasoline are interpreted or the rise below the rate price index, with 1% adjustments for water and 2.5% average for light and gas.
The elimination of export rights of 88% of industrial products (4,411 will cease to pay withholdings between 3 and 4.5%) reveals, on the other hand, that the government’s intention to gain competitiveness not by increasing the exchange rate, but for the decrease in taxes.
Immediately, the authorities would be successful since Inflation calculations for April of the different private consultants project a variation between 2.7 and 3.5%, that is below the previous month. If this data is confirmed, the leadership of the Ministry of Economy will celebrate it as a great triumph because it was obtained despite the exchange correction.
The official decision not to buy dollars until the exchange rate touches the band’s floor opens doubts about the possibility of complying with the accumulation goal of reserves agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) (the Central Bank should add about US $ 4,000 million in June). However, it is speculated that the Palace of Finance has been set as a priority to attack inflation and should not be surprised that you have to request a waiver for the breach of this objective.
Low and go up
Numerous reasons are argued in the market to explain why the dollar can be kept under both in May and June. An ecolatin analysis indicates, in this sense, that the authorities announced that the Central Bank would not intervene until the exchange rate touches the lower band, increases the supply of foreign exchange in the official market due to the elimination of the elimination of the blend and the agro liquidation goes by the entry of the thick harvest and the temporary elimination (until July) of the withholdings- from the middle of the month the field is contributing on average US $ 150 million daily against US $ 118 of the previous weeks-
The absorption of pesos for the new Breop carry trade and the largest currency offer that could be derived from the authorization of the entrance to the official change market for financial investments of non -residents (with a minimum of permanence of 6 months). Likewise, a lower temporary demand for importers is expected because stockearon Before the regime change.
But this consultant also warns reasons why the dollar can rise again between July and October. Among them, the fall in the contribution of agricultural exports after the liquidation of the thick harvest and a lower incentive to liquidate exports due to the return of retentions to agro products and by the appreciated exchange rate.
In parallel, there would be a recovery of the demand for imports after the exhaustion of the previous stock and a possible increase in the demand for currency for coverage in the face of electoral uncertainty. All this in a context of limited income of financial dollars due to electoral uncertainty and the permanence requirement with the risk of an eventual disarmament of the carry tradE in a context of volatility.
