The minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, embarked on the complex task of asking companies that do not upload prices, dynamic that not only puts firms negotiating on the side of power but also weakens the possibility of the state of imposing policies that avoid those increases. What happens to “Toto” has already happened to other ministers and secretaries of all governments, and it is that while asking for the favor, companies tell him that for a while and days later they increase again.
Going to specific cases, in the last hours two very clear episodes were given: on the one hand, two automotive and a giant of glass containers passed strong price increases; While, in the other corner, the oil companies aligned the state YPF and lowered their fuels an average 4 percent.
The reference is for General Motors and Toyota, who increased by 1.5 percent and the Cattorini containers factory, which warned that he is sending short lists with increases of 7 percent. This last factory is central to the formation of the final price because it supplies most of the food and beverage companies. That is, that percentage applied to the disseminated input will be passed to the values of the products finished in gondola.
The case with car firms is curious because, in addition, it occurs after a public bracelet that Caputo had with the sector, precisely for having increased just when the government tried to avoid the impact of prices devaluation. A few days ago, a journalist warned of increases up to 3.5 percent of the Stellantis group (Citroen, Fiat and Peugeot), a publication that generated Caputo’s reaction on social networks.
“If it were true, it would be a change in the relationship of trust built with this industry. And if that trust is broken, which cost so much to build, we will use our tools to defend consumers,” said the Minister of Economy. A few hours later, that business group was forced, due to government pressure, to issue a communication ensuring that the increases would suspend until new notice, but the rest of the brands do not seem to have attended official orders.
In other words, the same thing happened to Caputo with Caputo. The majority sent lists with increases between 9 and 15 percent, and ended up writing in public two of them, Molinos and Unilever, who agreed to suspend the lists. The rest, he held the increases.
What can happen to the CPI
In this order of things, and since the dollar finally did not jump so far at 1400 pesos from the band of the band, the devaluation had a step at disappear prices and below expectations. In the beginning, private consultants estimated an inflation between 4 and 5 points, giving a devaluation greater than 20 percent. Then, with the dollar in 1200 pesos, far from the official yearning to bring it to 1000 pesos, they returned to the calculations and the CPI was as follows.
Almost all indentified a slowdown in food increases after 6 percent inflation of the item in March. But no one is encouraged to forecast how much food will rise in general. Yes there are estimates on the general CPI: in PXQ, the consultant of Emmanuel Álvarez Agis, an inflation of 3.1 percent for April was forecast, below that of March.
Also, in Eco Go, Marina Dal Poggetto, which still did not include food inflation data of the last week, estimate an IPC of 3 percent. In the firm they understand that the devaluation of 8 percent operated after the agreement with the Monetary Fund (IMF) impacted, more than anything, in the areas appliances and in those durable with imported components.
The most surprising fact of all those who measured on the private side is that of the Analytica consultancy, which after seeing the prices of the third week of the month opted to a general CPI of 3.8 percent, above its March estimate but in line with the measurement of that month of Indec.
In the platoon there are also others such as C&T, which estimate a slowdown around 2.7%, a point below March. And freedom and progress, which estimates inflation of 3 percent for April, since they did not see food going too much. The only one of the consultants who, until today, saw an IPC much lower than in March was Orlando Ferreres: the company speculated that the inflation of the period could be in 2.5 percent, M, M, uy below the inflation of the month of March.
