He government insists that You will not buy currencies while The official of the official dollar Do not touch the band’s floor. Because of this, since the monetary scheme change towards flotation, It does not intervene in the official change market. This position ignited alerts among the various voices of the City, since To meet the goal with the IMF, reservations for US $ 430 million should accumulate before in just over a month (until June 13). But, beyond being close to breaking it, the government must face other challenges.
It is that if the Central Bank (BCRA) does not accumulate reservations, there are high possibilities that the country risk is “stagnant”, which would seriously make the return of Argentina to international debt markets in 2026.
“Politics can unlock the next disbursement, but still The State must return to debt markets in 2026, for which it must accumulate reservations. If this does not happen, the international assets of the BCRA should rise to US $ 60,000 million (it would have to add US $20,000 million, of which US $1,000 should come from the purchase in the MULC YU $ S8,000 of the scheduled disbursements), “they said from Province Bank.
Country risk and accumulation of reservations: what dynamic exists between them
From the City they assure that The decision not to accumulate reservations until the exchange rate does not touch the band’s floor, could slow down the speed Country risk reduction. “It has existed in recent years, A clear correlation between the rhythm of accumulation of BCRA reserves and the compression of the country risk. Today this correlation persists: while the monetary authority continues without giving indications of accumulation, the country risk stagnated in the area close to 700 points, although this week could pierce at that level, “they explained from Invest in the stock market (IEB).
From the same report they agreed that Reversing this dynamic is “fundamental” for the government, since the need to return to international financing from next year is key. With the current levels of Esprad, that goal becomes very difficult.
For its part, from Allaria They remembered that While the government is paying debt maturities without access to the international voluntary marketthere is no room for the private sector to incur total deficit. This is because, Without the possibility that the State obtains funds from abroad, any private sector deficit must be financed internallywhich can generate pressures on international reserves and restrict the availability of foreign exchange.
Therefore, they argue that it is crucial to lower the country risk, because this would allow the State Refinance their debt maturities instead of paying them completely with reservations, releasing resources and reducing pressure on the exchange market. The good news, they explain, is that, in the coming months, Debt matches are relatively lowwhich provides an opportunity for the government to work in improving its credit profile.
In turn, from Econviewsthey also mentioned this problem, although, beyond considering “improbable” that is fulfilled the accumulation of reserves, They do not believe that “the IMF does a lot about it. The first review will continue, continue.” “However, Without accumulation of reservations we do not see catalysts (beyond the elections) for additional casualties the country risk. “
It should be noted that this week Moody’s He ruled out the possibility that Argentina returns to the international market in the short term. Despite the improvements in reserves derived from the IMF disbursement, the rating agency remarked that the country continues with a Structural deficit in your balance of payments. Even with commercial surplus and external assistance, reservations were lost, which shows that external imbalance persists.
