On May 9, in the Red Square, Vladimir Putin will celebrate the victory Daythat commemorates the defeat of the Alemania Nazi. The parade used to include the allies of Russia during the Second world war. Today, while Putin attacks what, absurdly, states that it is another “Nazi” government in Ukrainedemonstrates the firm opposition from Russia to the West. This should worry all of Europe.
As the dead of the dead in Ukraine increases, Putin’s war goals have expanded to justify Russian losses. What began as a special military operation in Ukraine has become Russia’s existential struggle against distant enemies. This is a deep change. It means that the future of Ukraine depends more on Putin’s ambitions than on the president’s theatrical diplomacy Donald Trump. It also means that many Europeans are complacent with the threat that Russia represents and that they do not know how to deter it.
Russia may not be about to invade other parts of Europe. But he will try to gain influence by redoubleing his cyber attacks, influence operations, murders and sabotages. If Putin perceives weakness, could try to divide the Take seizing a small portion of territory and challenging the allies to respond. I could be ready for that in two to five years. It may seem a long time. In military planning, it is an eye opening and closing.
Many in the United States and southern Europe will find these ridiculous statements. Some, like the American envoy Steve Witkoffthey claim that you can trust Putin; or that he would not dare to violate Trump’s alleged peace agreement. Others, although wise enough not to trust a man who has gone to war five times in 25 years, argue that Russia is too weak to represent a great threat. In Ukraine he has suffered almost a million dead and injured and, since his advances in the first weeks after the invasion, he has taken less than 1% more of the Ukrainian territory.
Many in Baltic countries, Poland and the Nordic countries are inclined to the other extreme, warning that the threat is greater than Putin, because Russian imperialism has deep roots. That fear is understandable given its history of attacks, but it is the wrong way of addressing Russia. Not only does Putin’s message reaffirm that NATO is incurably antirusa, but increases the probability that Europe loses opportunities for relaxation.
Putin is undoubtedly an aggressor that needs to be dissuaded. A bad peace imposed on Ukraine could become a springboard for his next war. At the same time, however, although Putin is relentless, He is 72 years old. Now is the time to influence what comes next.
The deterrence depends on understanding the threat that Putin represents. After three years of struggle, war has become an ideology. Previously, 60% of Russians claimed that government priority should be to improve the standard of living. Today, that percentage has fallen to 41%. On the other hand, 55% now claim to want Russia to be respected as a world power. Mr. Putin has put the entire Russian society in war. The arms industry generates employment. The generous payments to the soldiers and their families amount to 1.5% of GDP. Mr. Putin also uses war as an excuse for an increasingly severe repression and its isolation from the West.
It is wrong to think that Russian forces are exhausted or unable. The Navy and the Air force are practically intact. The High Commander of NATO states that Putin is refreshing men, weapons and ammunition at an unprecedented rate. Russia plans to have 1.5 million active troops, compared to 1.3 million in September; Over time, you could increase your forces and equipment on the western front between 30 and 50 %. Thanks to war, he has strengthened his ties with China, Iran and North Korea.
-Russian tactics are rudimentary and expensive, but a small sudden incursion into a NATO member would force NATO to choose between recovering the lost terrain and risking a nuclear war. If it did not fight, NATO would disintegrate. In a longer conflict, NATO could surely repel a first Russian offensive, but would the resources have for a fifth or sixth? Putin could consider it a strategic victory if Trump refused to appear, even if Russia were repelled. This is because the absence of the United States on the battlefield would consolidate Russia’s influence on Europe.
The defense against Russia begins in Ukraine. The more the success is denied to Putin, the less likely it will be that attack on NATO. As The Economist argues, this means supplying weapons to Ukraine, in addition to giving you more money to pay those you can manufacture at low cost. Ukraine could produce equipment worth $ 35 billion a year, but has orders for less than half. Trump should understand that financing Ukraine benefits USAeven if only because China observes the progress of Russia.
However, supporting Ukraine is not enough to guarantee the security of the entire continent and Trump is unlikely to offer a lot of help, so Europe must do more. This means trying more to defend himself, consolidating his unit and laying the foundations of a post-Putin Russia.
Europe is buying more weapons. New SIPRI figures, a Swedish studies center, show that NATO, excluding the United States, increased its expenditure by 68 billion dollars, or 19 %, in 2022-23. It takes more, but European leaders have not yet prepared voters for the sacrifices that are coming. They are discussing weapons contracts. For example, it is possible that Great Britain You cannot join a European Union program unless allowing EU ships to fish in their waters.
It is necessary to work to strengthen NATO unity, especially if the United States no longer cohesion. It is naive to think that countries like Spain and Portugal will once fear Russia as Estonia and Poland. But they face threats for their infrastructure and politics. They also have a vital interest in the EU is free from dysfunction that would result from greater Russian influence on its eastern members.
Finally, Europe needs a policy towards Russia that looks beyond Ukraine. During the Cold war, The West convinced the Russians that he was on his side and that what prevented them from freedom and prosperity was the Soviet regime. He cultivated the dissidents and encouraged contacts. Today, too many Europeans are hostile to all Russians, not just the Belicists.
Europe has wealth and industrial power to resist Putin. He has the potential to reach an agreement with his successor. While Russian soldiers parade through the Red Square, the question is whether Europe can overcome their divisions to save Ukraine and protect.
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