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Interest rates in Colombia could continue to fall for these causes: will they occur?

After the most recent Board of Directors, of the Bank of the Republic, there was a of co -director that asked for a more aggressive of interest rates. However, and for having reached a consensus, the cut was defined in 25 points to leave them at 9.25 %.

According to the minutes of that meeting, the co -director who believe is possible a more aggressive cut, ensure that the decision would significantly help a better behavior of the economy.

The Anif base scenario contemplates additional reductions of a quarter percentage point in the June, September, October and December sessions. Photo: Value Analitik.

According to this group, maintaining a restrictive position of interest rates in Colombia is not consistent with that the Colombian economy has had in reduction of inflation, positive growth and deficit correction in the current of the balance of payments.

“In addition, growth is clearly redistributive because it is leveraged in the growth of private consumption as a of the in the minimum wage, the remittances of Colombians abroad and exports of coffee, flowers, bananas and tourism.”

The monthly of economic analysts of the Bank of the Republic also anticipates that the Colombian economy would grow 2.4 %. Photo: Bank of the Republic.

It is read that while inflation is reduced the effect of the monetary policy becomes more Contractionist because it implies a greater real interest rate.

“They insisted that there is for a more significant reduction in the policy interest rate, taking into account a high real interest rate, and the trend of Colombian peso towards appreciation as a consequence of the weakness of the dollar at the international level,” explains the document on expectations for interest rates in Colombia.

They warn that, although inflation projections are located above the goal, inflation expectations do not show a growing trend.

Behavior of interest rates. Image: Fedesarrollo

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And, conclude the co -director that you want to lower interest rates in Colombia more than inflation expectations are explained for “a fall from the measures derived from debt markets, and stability in analysts’ surveys.”

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