How can Verstappen win the F1 Miami GP and will play Antonelli a key role?

The temporal circuit of Miamiaround the Hard Rock Stadiumdivide opinions, but the upper part of the grill for the 2025 Grand Prix It offers very promising possibilities for an exciting career.

Although the chief of McLaren, Andrea Stellahe has publicly mocked the “narrative” that presents Red Bull as a covered team, the truth is that Max Verstappen will leave the pole with the often problematic RB21while pilots of Stella They made key mistakes that have left them something out of the grill (although not for much).

This layout has three areas of DRSand the second, which runs through sector two in curve until curve 11, has been extended this year in 75 meters. To judge as seen in the Sprint race, this has not had a great impact on overtaking opportunities.

But I could still influence the race. Several pilots who risked in curve 11 ended badly, especially Liam Lawson, whose attempt to advance Fernando Alonso ended Aston Martin against the wall and caused the leaving the security car, which allowed Lando Norris to win instead of his partner Oscar Piestri.

What can Verstappen do to beat Lando Norris?

The classification was extremely at odds: less than two tenths separated the first five cars, and the difference among the top three was measured in hundredths, not in tenths. In fact, the head of Mercedes, Toto wolffhe said that Andrea Kimi Antonelli could have done the pole if it were not for a small error in curve 1 during her return in Q3.

For Verstappen, the key will be to stay ahead of the McLaren At the beginning, especially Norristhat is second. If you can do it, you will have to keep them behind. It is not a task as simple as in Suzukadue to the long rear straight and the DRSbut keeping the track on the track is your best weapon in front of the Mcl39known for its good management of rear tires.

But Norris He is confident of making a good exit, and from the P2 he has the inner line to the first curve if he starts well. Saucers surpassed a Antonelli Similarly in the sprint, although the debutant of Mercedes He considered that he was unjustly treated.

Here enters a new factor in the Great awards This season. Antonelli Learn fast and have already lived the experience of losing the advantage of pole in curve 1 during the Sprint. His third place on Sunday’s grid suggests that he could also play an important role in curve 1, and will be especially motivated to take revenge on Saucerswho separated it on Saturday. This brings a new dynamism to the possibilities of the first round.

From there, the race is expected to become a tire management exercise. Everything indicates that it will be a career at a single stop, even though Pirelli It has brought compounds a step softer than in 2024 – so the C4, which was the soft last year, will now be the medium.

“Here everything revolves around thermal degradation and overheating,” said Mario Isola, director of Motorsport de Pirelli. “Keeping the tires within their optimal range, without forcing them too much, allows you to maintain good performance.

“It will be interesting to see what the career rhythm will be chosen. A stop is possible with medium-duro.

“Last year only a pilot made the soft strategy [Zhou Guanyu de Sauber, que empezó con medios y cambió a blandos en la vuelta 28 de 57] And he could finish the race, but the medium-duro strategy is also viable. “

Isola He estimates that the performance difference between the two most likely compounds is very small, of just two or three tenths per lap.

The majority of pilots have managed to keep two games of hard tires, as a preventive measure in the face Miamigiven the design of the layout, full of curves prone to error. All, except Carlos Sainz (who is sixth) and Fernando Alonso, have at least one new media game, which will probably be the option chosen to start.

Last year only five pilots did not start with media, and only one of them – Lewis Hamilton – did it from the front of the grill. If dry conditions are maintained, it is reasonable to think that the 2025 GP It will be developed similarly: means for those in front, while some of the background will bet on an alternative strategy, probably with hard.

What if it rains?

Sunday’s forecast gives a 40% of probability of rain during the time of the race, which could add another dimension to the strategy.

In the sprint, the intermediate tires were practically destroyed when the 10 laps had barely exceeded, since a dry traced began to form.

“The interesting thing is that, with a track that dried quite fast – or at least with a fairly clear dry line – the wear of the right front tire was very high,” Isola explained.

“That is why, although the track was drying, the times by return did not improve: wear in the right front tire generated subviring, and that prevented pilots from improving their times.

“When they saw that they were not far from the crossover (the moment when slicks are faster than intermediates), probably a second difference, that was the right time to change slicks, because with the intermediates they could no longer take more performance. And that happened after 10-12 laps, which is an important indication.

“If the track dries but there is still a risk of rain, obviously they will have to contemplate an additional stop to set up another game of intermediates.”