A study of the appointment includes the benefits of reducing sugar consumption. Investigations carried out by members of the Transversal Unit of Agrifood Economics of the Center for Agrifood Research and Technology of Aragon (appointment) reveals the Health and environmental benefits that European society could have in the year 2050 if sugar consumption was reduced. George Philippidis and Ana Isabel Sanjuán lead the investigation.
It is collected in the article “An ex-study on the impacts of reducing sugar consumption in the EU: a sweet combination of health and environmental benefits”. And it was published at the end of 2024 in the prestigious magazine economic Systems Research.
Sugar consumption and derived problems
The study study includes the benefits of reducing sugar consumption. WHO estimates that approximately 60% of European citizens are overweight. In the 2006-2016 decade, it is estimated that the percentage of population with obesity in the EU has increased by 21%. And overweight is considered the fourth most common risk factor for noncommunicable diseases (ENT). Such as cardiovascular, diabetes, hypertension and cancer.
Assuming that there are no changes in food consumption patterns in the EU between 2020 and 2050, the study concludes that the average body mass index (BMI) overweight people (BMI ≥ 25) will continue to increase. In 2050, 191.5 million adults over 19 in the EU will be overweight. Of which 57.8 million will be obese (BMI≥30). In percentage terms, these are increases of 4.3% and 6.4%, respectively, compared to 2020 levels.
-This study analyzes how the amount of sugar consumed affects weight. And, therefore, to people’s health. And it simulates what would be the impact of following the recommendation of the World Health Organization (WHO), consisting of reducing 10% of the total calories that are ingested. Although it also analyzes two stricter options: reduce it to 7.5% and 5%.
Sugar, future estimates
According to a conservative estimate that takes into account the loss and waste of food throughout the food chain, the decrease of per capita kilocalories a day compared to the reference situation in 2050 ranges between 130 kcal/pc/pd (hypothesis of 10%) and 223 kcal/pc/pd (hypothesis of 5%). The lower threshold (10%) and upper (5%) correspond to 33.5 and 57.6 grams less sugar per person and day. Compared to the reference situation, the propensity of adults overweight and obesity in the EU27 over 19 years could decrease between 8 million (lower threshold). And in 15 million (upper threshold) from here to 2050. Given the heterogeneity of sugar intake in the diet in different EU regions, in 2050 the 5% sugar intake threshold could reduce the number of overweight and obesity adults in Scandinavia by 15%. Compared to 3% in the Mediterranean region.
Using the concept of the “food footprint”, the study also measures the environmental impact of the reduction of sugar consumption by calculating the amount of emissions and earth incorporated into the different phases of production of food products. With an increasingly lower sugar consumption, the authors conclude that reducing the energy intake of sugar to only 5% throughout the EU could save 56m2 of earth and 20.2 kgco2e of per capita emissions the year from here to 2050.
Sugar Tax and other measures
The authors recognize that the use of sugar taxes, which are the driving mechanism of the adoption of less sugar diets, will increase the price of food. In addition, it will have a negative impact on agricultural employment. On the other hand, in addition to the health and environmental benefits associated with the reduction of sugar consumption, scientific data support a virtuous circle of health improvement. Increased salaries and increased macroeconomic results, which could invest the negative effects on the economic indicators indicated in this study, through selective redistributive policies.
